Bgin Blockchain Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BGIN Stock | 3.50 0.04 1.16% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bgin Blockchain Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 3.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.26. Bgin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Bgin Blockchain's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bgin Blockchain's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bgin Blockchain fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Bgin Blockchain's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Bgin Blockchain hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bgin Blockchain Limited from the perspective of Bgin Blockchain response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bgin Blockchain Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 3.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.26. Bgin Blockchain after-hype prediction price | USD 3.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bgin Blockchain to cross-verify your projections. Bgin Blockchain Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bgin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bgin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bgin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bgin Blockchain Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Bgin Blockchain's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 132 M | Current Value 138.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 49.2 M |
Bgin Blockchain Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bgin Blockchain Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 3.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bgin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bgin Blockchain's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bgin Blockchain Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bgin Blockchain | Bgin Blockchain Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bgin Blockchain Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bgin Blockchain's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bgin Blockchain's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 9.26, respectively. We have considered Bgin Blockchain's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bgin Blockchain stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bgin Blockchain stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7991 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1519 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0495 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.2645 |
Predictive Modules for Bgin Blockchain
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bgin Blockchain. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bgin Blockchain After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bgin Blockchain at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bgin Blockchain or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bgin Blockchain, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bgin Blockchain Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bgin Blockchain's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bgin Blockchain's historical news coverage. Bgin Blockchain's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.18 and 8.95, respectively. We have considered Bgin Blockchain's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bgin Blockchain is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bgin Blockchain is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bgin Blockchain Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bgin Blockchain is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bgin Blockchain backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bgin Blockchain, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 5.42 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 5 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.50 | 3.53 | 0.86 |
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Bgin Blockchain Hype Timeline
Bgin Blockchain is currently traded for 3.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Bgin is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.53 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.86%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Bgin Blockchain is about 2316.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.54. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bgin Blockchain to cross-verify your projections.Bgin Blockchain Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bgin Blockchain's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bgin Blockchain's future price movements. Getting to know how Bgin Blockchain's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bgin Blockchain may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GDEV | GDEV Inc | (0.09) | 8 per month | 5.18 | 0.03 | 12.02 | (10.28) | 58.11 | |
| GRVY | Gravity Co | (0.48) | 12 per month | 0.94 | 0.05 | 2.23 | (1.57) | 10.11 | |
| SOHU | SohuCom | (0.20) | 7 per month | 1.76 | 0.07 | 4.46 | (2.72) | 12.14 | |
| NNDM | Nano Dimension | (0.04) | 7 per month | 2.85 | (0.01) | 6.21 | (4.79) | 16.30 | |
| DDD | 3D Systems | (0.02) | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.33 | (10.58) | 26.42 | |
| DDI | Doubledown Interactive Co | (0.1) | 6 per month | 2.03 | (0.02) | 3.09 | (2.65) | 10.09 | |
| IMXI | International Money Express | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0) | 0.41 | (0.33) | 1.45 | |
| EGAN | eGain | 0.44 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.19 | (6.63) | 32.05 | |
| TSAT | Telesat Corp | 3.45 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 7.30 | (8.40) | 33.88 | |
| OSPN | OneSpan | (0.60) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.52 | (4.97) | 30.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bgin Blockchain
For every potential investor in Bgin, whether a beginner or expert, Bgin Blockchain's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bgin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bgin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bgin Blockchain's price trends.Bgin Blockchain Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bgin Blockchain stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bgin Blockchain could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bgin Blockchain by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bgin Blockchain Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bgin Blockchain stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bgin Blockchain shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bgin Blockchain stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bgin Blockchain Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bgin Blockchain Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bgin Blockchain's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bgin Blockchain's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bgin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.03 | |||
| Variance | 36.4 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bgin Blockchain
The number of cover stories for Bgin Blockchain depends on current market conditions and Bgin Blockchain's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bgin Blockchain is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bgin Blockchain's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bgin Blockchain Short Properties
Bgin Blockchain's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bgin Blockchain's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bgin Blockchain Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bgin Blockchain's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bgin Blockchain's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 114.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bgin Blockchain to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Is Computer Hardware space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bgin Blockchain. If investors know Bgin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bgin Blockchain listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Bgin Blockchain is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bgin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bgin Blockchain's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bgin Blockchain's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bgin Blockchain's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bgin Blockchain's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bgin Blockchain's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bgin Blockchain is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bgin Blockchain's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.