Long Term Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| BGLKX Fund | USD 37.85 0.23 0.60% |
Long Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Long Term's share price is approaching 39 suggesting that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Long Term, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Long Term hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Long Term from the perspective of Long Term response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of The Long Term on the next trading day is expected to be 37.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.95. Long Term after-hype prediction price | USD 33.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Long |
Long Term Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Long price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Long using various technical indicators. When you analyze Long charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Long Term Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of The Long Term on the next trading day is expected to be 37.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Long Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Long Term's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Long Term Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Long Term | Long Term Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Long Term Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Long Term's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Long Term's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.65 and 39.05, respectively. We have considered Long Term's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Long Term mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Long Term mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1521 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4492 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0116 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.95 |
Predictive Modules for Long Term
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Long Term. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Long Term After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Long Term at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Long Term or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Long Term, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Long Term Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Long Term's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Long Term's historical news coverage. Long Term's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.80 and 41.64, respectively. We have considered Long Term's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Long Term is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Long Term is based on 3 months time horizon.
Long Term Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Long Term is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Long Term backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Long Term, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.20 | 4.85 | 0.27 | 3 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
37.85 | 33.00 | 12.81 |
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Long Term Hype Timeline
Long Term is currently traded for 37.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -4.85, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.27. Long is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 33.0. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 3.96%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -12.81%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Long Term is about 71.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.58. The company last dividend was issued on the 27th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Long Term to cross-verify your projections.Long Term Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Long Term's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Long Term's future price movements. Getting to know how Long Term's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Long Term may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRHYX | Msift High Yield | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 0.24 | (0.23) | 0.47 | |
| SGYAX | Siit High Yield | (0.02) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.57 | (0.14) | 0.87 | |
| DIHRX | Intal High Relative | (5.94) | 2 per month | 0.58 | 0.07 | 1.19 | (1.26) | 3.04 | |
| PAIHX | T Rowe Price | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 0.23 | (0.23) | 0.91 | |
| CABIX | Ab Global Risk | (5.80) | 2 per month | 0.31 | 0.07 | 0.83 | (0.79) | 5.52 | |
| SISAX | Saat Tax Managed Aggressive | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.24 | 0.12 | 1.19 | (1.02) | 10.84 | |
| SABIX | Aggressive Balanced Allocation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.35 | 0.09 | 1.10 | (1.00) | 10.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Long Term
For every potential investor in Long, whether a beginner or expert, Long Term's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Long Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Long. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Long Term's price trends.Long Term Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Long Term mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Long Term could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Long Term by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Long Term Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Long Term mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Long Term shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Long Term mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify The Long Term entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 37.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 37.85 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.23) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.33 |
Long Term Risk Indicators
The analysis of Long Term's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Long Term's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting long mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8828 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Variance | 1.46 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Long Term
The number of cover stories for Long Term depends on current market conditions and Long Term's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Long Term is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Long Term's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Long Mutual Fund
Long Term financial ratios help investors to determine whether Long Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Long with respect to the benefits of owning Long Term security.
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