Biglari Holdings Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| BH-A Stock | USD 1,040 9.89 0.94% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Biglari Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1,045 with a mean absolute deviation of 99.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,687. Biglari Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Biglari Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Biglari Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Biglari Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Biglari |
Biglari Holdings 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Biglari Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1,045 with a mean absolute deviation of 99.78, mean absolute percentage error of 44,869, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,687.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Biglari Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Biglari Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Biglari Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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Biglari Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Biglari Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Biglari Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 902.57 and 1,187, respectively. We have considered Biglari Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Biglari Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Biglari Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4705 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -13.9549 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 99.7783 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.223372036854776E14 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5687.3625 |
Predictive Modules for Biglari Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Biglari Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Biglari Holdings
For every potential investor in Biglari, whether a beginner or expert, Biglari Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Biglari Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Biglari. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Biglari Holdings' price trends.Biglari Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Biglari Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Biglari Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Biglari Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Biglari Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Biglari Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Biglari Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Biglari Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Biglari Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Biglari Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Biglari Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Biglari Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1040.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1040.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.95) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (9.89) |
Biglari Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Biglari Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Biglari Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting biglari stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6265 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3925 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Biglari Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Biglari Holdings' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Biglari Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Biglari Holdings Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Biglari Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Biglari Stock refer to our How to Trade Biglari Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.