Grupo Casas Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| BHIA3 Stock | 3.39 0.07 2.11% |
Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Grupo Casas hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Grupo Casas Bahia from the perspective of Grupo Casas response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grupo Casas Bahia on the next trading day is expected to be 3.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.86. Grupo Casas after-hype prediction price | BRL 3.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Grupo |
Grupo Casas Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Grupo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Grupo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Grupo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Grupo Casas Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grupo Casas Bahia on the next trading day is expected to be 3.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grupo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grupo Casas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Grupo Casas Stock Forecast Pattern
Grupo Casas Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Grupo Casas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grupo Casas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.60, respectively. We have considered Grupo Casas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grupo Casas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grupo Casas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0124 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0977 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0298 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.8609 |
Predictive Modules for Grupo Casas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Casas Bahia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Grupo Casas. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Grupo Casas' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Grupo Casas' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Grupo Casas Bahia.Grupo Casas Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Grupo Casas at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Grupo Casas or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Grupo Casas, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Grupo Casas Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Grupo Casas is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Grupo Casas backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Grupo Casas, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 4.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.39 | 3.39 | 0.00 |
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Grupo Casas Hype Timeline
Grupo Casas Bahia is currently traded for 3.39on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Grupo is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Grupo Casas is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.39. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.Grupo Casas Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Grupo Casas' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Grupo Casas' future price movements. Getting to know how Grupo Casas' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Grupo Casas may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PETZ3 | Pet Center Comrcio | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.58 | 0.07 | 4.50 | (3.44) | 19.73 | |
| RANI3 | Irani Papel e | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.97 | 0.11 | 2.29 | (1.71) | 5.97 | |
| SBFG3 | Grupo SBF SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.62 | 0.11 | 3.75 | (3.12) | 14.14 | |
| PCAR3 | Companhia Brasileira de | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.15 | 0.03 | 4.21 | (4.01) | 10.69 | |
| AMER3 | Americanas SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.90 | 0.03 | 5.25 | (5.62) | 15.21 | |
| TFCO4 | Track Field Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.89 | (3.53) | 11.49 | |
| TUPY3 | Tupy SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.06 | 0.03 | 3.38 | (3.30) | 12.73 | |
| MYPK3 | Iochpe Maxion SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.37 | (0.03) | 2.19 | (2.77) | 6.22 | |
| LJQQ3 | Lojas Quero Quero SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.57 | 0.10 | 5.61 | (5.36) | 15.71 | |
| ENJU3 | Enjoei SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.76 | 0.12 | 4.17 | (2.94) | 11.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Grupo Casas
For every potential investor in Grupo, whether a beginner or expert, Grupo Casas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grupo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grupo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grupo Casas' price trends.Grupo Casas Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grupo Casas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grupo Casas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grupo Casas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grupo Casas Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grupo Casas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grupo Casas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grupo Casas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grupo Casas Bahia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Grupo Casas Risk Indicators
The analysis of Grupo Casas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grupo Casas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grupo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.38 | |||
| Variance | 19.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 20.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 18.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Grupo Casas
The number of cover stories for Grupo Casas depends on current market conditions and Grupo Casas' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Grupo Casas is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Grupo Casas' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Grupo Stock Analysis
When running Grupo Casas' price analysis, check to measure Grupo Casas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grupo Casas is operating at the current time. Most of Grupo Casas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grupo Casas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grupo Casas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grupo Casas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.