Bluerock Homes Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

BHM Stock  USD 9.25  0.01  0.11%   
Bluerock Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Bluerock Homes' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bluerock Homes' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bluerock Homes fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Bluerock Homes' share price is approaching 47 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bluerock Homes, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 47

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Bluerock Homes' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Bluerock Homes and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Bluerock Homes' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Bluerock Homes Trust, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Bluerock Homes' stock price prediction:
Wall Street Target Price
11
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.192
Using Bluerock Homes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bluerock Homes Trust from the perspective of Bluerock Homes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Bluerock Homes Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 9.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.25.

Bluerock Homes after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.22  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bluerock Homes to cross-verify your projections.

Bluerock Homes Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Bluerock price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bluerock using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bluerock charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Bluerock Homes is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Bluerock Homes Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 4th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Bluerock Homes Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 9.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bluerock Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bluerock Homes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bluerock Homes Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bluerock Homes  Bluerock Homes Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Bluerock Homes Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bluerock Homes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bluerock Homes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.40 and 13.09, respectively. We have considered Bluerock Homes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.25
9.24
Expected Value
13.09
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bluerock Homes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bluerock Homes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.7021
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -6.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.2923
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0302
SAESum of the absolute errors17.2475
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Bluerock Homes Trust price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Bluerock Homes. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Bluerock Homes

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bluerock Homes Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.379.2213.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.709.5513.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
8.399.8311.28
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.0111.0012.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bluerock Homes. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bluerock Homes' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bluerock Homes' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bluerock Homes Trust.

Bluerock Homes After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Bluerock Homes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bluerock Homes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bluerock Homes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Bluerock Homes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Bluerock Homes' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bluerock Homes' historical news coverage. Bluerock Homes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.37 and 13.07, respectively. We have considered Bluerock Homes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
9.25
9.22
After-hype Price
13.07
Upside
Bluerock Homes is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bluerock Homes Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.

Bluerock Homes Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bluerock Homes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bluerock Homes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bluerock Homes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
3.85
  0.03 
 0.00  
6 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.25
9.22
0.32 
987.18  
Notes

Bluerock Homes Hype Timeline

On the 3rd of February Bluerock Homes Trust is traded for 9.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Bluerock is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 9.22. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.32%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Bluerock Homes is about 19250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.25. About 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.28. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Bluerock Homes Trust recorded a loss per share of 2.92. The entity last dividend was issued on the 24th of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bluerock Homes to cross-verify your projections.

Bluerock Homes Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Bluerock Homes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bluerock Homes' future price movements. Getting to know how Bluerock Homes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bluerock Homes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Bluerock Homes

For every potential investor in Bluerock, whether a beginner or expert, Bluerock Homes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bluerock Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bluerock. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bluerock Homes' price trends.

Bluerock Homes Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bluerock Homes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bluerock Homes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bluerock Homes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bluerock Homes Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bluerock Homes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bluerock Homes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bluerock Homes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bluerock Homes Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bluerock Homes Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bluerock Homes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bluerock Homes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bluerock stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Bluerock Homes

The number of cover stories for Bluerock Homes depends on current market conditions and Bluerock Homes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bluerock Homes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bluerock Homes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Bluerock Homes Short Properties

Bluerock Homes' future price predictability will typically decrease when Bluerock Homes' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bluerock Homes Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bluerock Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bluerock Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding3.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments115.2 M
When determining whether Bluerock Homes Trust is a strong investment it is important to analyze Bluerock Homes' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Bluerock Homes' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Bluerock Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bluerock Homes to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Will Real Estate Management & Development sector continue expanding? Could Bluerock diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bluerock Homes. Projected growth potential of Bluerock fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Bluerock Homes data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Dividend Share
0.375
Earnings Share
(2.92)
Revenue Per Share
19.187
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.192
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Bluerock Homes Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bluerock that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bluerock Homes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bluerock Homes' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Bluerock Homes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bluerock Homes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Bluerock Homes' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Bluerock Homes should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Bluerock Homes' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.