Baidu Stock Forward View
| BIDU Stock | USD 157.51 0.16 0.10% |
Baidu Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Baidu's stock price is slightly above 63 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Baidu, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.351 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 10.7551 | EPS Estimate Current Year 53.4536 | EPS Estimate Next Year 57.3954 | Wall Street Target Price 173.8919 |
Using Baidu hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Baidu Inc from the perspective of Baidu response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Baidu using Baidu's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Baidu using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Baidu's stock price.
Baidu Short Interest
An investor who is long Baidu may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Baidu and may potentially protect profits, hedge Baidu with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 108.4874 | Short Percent 0.0302 | Short Ratio 2.38 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.9 M | 50 Day MA 132.2622 |
Baidu Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Baidu Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 155.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 249.57.Baidu Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Baidu's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Baidu. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Baidu can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Baidu Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Baidu's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Baidu.
Baidu Implied Volatility | 0.54 |
Baidu's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Baidu Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Baidu's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Baidu stock will not fluctuate a lot when Baidu's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Baidu Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 155.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 249.57. Baidu after-hype prediction price | USD 159.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baidu to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Baidu contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Baidu Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0338% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Baidu trading at USD 157.51, that is roughly USD 0.0532 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Baidu's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Baidu Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Baidu Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Baidu's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Baidu's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Baidu stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Baidu's open interest, investors have to compare it to Baidu's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Baidu is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Baidu. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Baidu Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Baidu price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Baidu using various technical indicators. When you analyze Baidu charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Baidu's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2003-12-31 | Previous Quarter 29.9 B | Current Value 38.6 B | Quarterly Volatility 15.1 B |
Baidu Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Baidu Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 155.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.09, mean absolute percentage error of 25.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 249.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Baidu Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Baidu's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Baidu Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Baidu | Baidu Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Baidu Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Baidu's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Baidu's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 151.86 and 158.70, respectively. We have considered Baidu's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Baidu stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Baidu stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.339 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.0913 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0313 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 249.5712 |
Predictive Modules for Baidu
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Baidu Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Baidu's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Baidu After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Baidu at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Baidu or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Baidu, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Baidu Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Baidu's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Baidu's historical news coverage. Baidu's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 155.94 and 162.78, respectively. We have considered Baidu's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Baidu is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Baidu Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Baidu Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Baidu is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Baidu backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Baidu, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 3.42 | 1.85 | 1.03 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
157.51 | 159.36 | 1.17 |
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Baidu Hype Timeline
Baidu Inc is currently traded for 157.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.85, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.03. Baidu is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 159.36 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 90.72%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 1.17%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.49%. The volatility of related hype on Baidu is about 163.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 156.48. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 133.12 B. Net Income was 24.18 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 58.38 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baidu to cross-verify your projections.Baidu Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Baidu's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Baidu's future price movements. Getting to know how Baidu's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Baidu may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TME | Tencent Music Entertainment | 0.07 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.54 | (4.93) | 12.10 | |
| RDDT | (14.36) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.11 | (7.76) | 21.40 | ||
| CHTR | Charter Communications | (2.34) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.83 | (4.28) | 9.83 | |
| PINS | (0.66) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.80 | (4.13) | 25.49 | ||
| NBIS | Nebius Group NV | (2.54) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.98 | (7.91) | 23.24 | |
| WBD | Warner Bros Discovery | 0.21 | 7 per month | 1.05 | 0.19 | 4.18 | (2.39) | 9.00 | |
| LYV | Live Nation Entertainment | (0.90) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.70 | (2.61) | 11.61 | |
| CHT | Chunghwa Telecom Co | (0.31) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.05 | (1.14) | 2.99 | |
| FOXA | Fox Corp Class | (1.00) | 8 per month | 0.82 | 0.16 | 2.58 | (1.59) | 10.38 | |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Holdings | 0.89 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.42 | (2.93) | 10.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for Baidu
For every potential investor in Baidu, whether a beginner or expert, Baidu's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Baidu Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Baidu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Baidu's price trends.Baidu Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Baidu stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Baidu could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Baidu by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Baidu Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Baidu stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Baidu shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Baidu stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Baidu Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 157.51 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 157.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.08) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.16) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 63.04 |
Baidu Risk Indicators
The analysis of Baidu's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Baidu's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting baidu stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.4 | |||
| Variance | 11.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Baidu
The number of cover stories for Baidu depends on current market conditions and Baidu's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Baidu is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Baidu's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Baidu Short Properties
Baidu's future price predictability will typically decrease when Baidu's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Baidu Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Baidu's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Baidu's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 349.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 127.4 B |
Additional Tools for Baidu Stock Analysis
When running Baidu's price analysis, check to measure Baidu's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Baidu is operating at the current time. Most of Baidu's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Baidu's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Baidu's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Baidu to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.