Builddirect Tehcnologies Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BILD Stock   3.05  0.01  0.33%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Builddirect Tehcnologies on the next trading day is expected to be 3.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.30. Builddirect Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Builddirect Tehcnologies' stock price is slightly above 65 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Builddirect, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 65

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Builddirect Tehcnologies' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Builddirect Tehcnologies and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Builddirect Tehcnologies' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Builddirect Tehcnologies, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Builddirect Tehcnologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Builddirect Tehcnologies from the perspective of Builddirect Tehcnologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Builddirect Tehcnologies on the next trading day is expected to be 3.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.30.

Builddirect Tehcnologies after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 3.05  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Builddirect Tehcnologies to cross-verify your projections.

Builddirect Tehcnologies Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Builddirect price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Builddirect using various technical indicators. When you analyze Builddirect charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Builddirect Tehcnologies works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Builddirect Tehcnologies Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Builddirect Tehcnologies on the next trading day is expected to be 3.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Builddirect Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Builddirect Tehcnologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Builddirect Tehcnologies Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Builddirect TehcnologiesBuilddirect Tehcnologies Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Builddirect Tehcnologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Builddirect Tehcnologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Builddirect Tehcnologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.55, respectively. We have considered Builddirect Tehcnologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.05
3.07
Expected Value
7.55
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Builddirect Tehcnologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Builddirect Tehcnologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0203
MADMean absolute deviation0.0729
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.029
SAESum of the absolute errors4.2986
When Builddirect Tehcnologies prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Builddirect Tehcnologies trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Builddirect Tehcnologies observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Builddirect Tehcnologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Builddirect Tehcnologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Builddirect Tehcnologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.153.057.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.122.396.87
Details

Builddirect Tehcnologies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Builddirect Tehcnologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Builddirect Tehcnologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Builddirect Tehcnologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Builddirect Tehcnologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Builddirect Tehcnologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Builddirect Tehcnologies' historical news coverage. Builddirect Tehcnologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.15 and 7.53, respectively. We have considered Builddirect Tehcnologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
3.05
3.05
After-hype Price
7.53
Upside
Builddirect Tehcnologies is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Builddirect Tehcnologies is based on 3 months time horizon.

Builddirect Tehcnologies Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Builddirect Tehcnologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Builddirect Tehcnologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Builddirect Tehcnologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.66 
4.48
 0.00  
  0.01 
0 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
3.05
3.05
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Builddirect Tehcnologies Hype Timeline

Builddirect Tehcnologies is currently traded for 3.05on TSX Venture Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Builddirect is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.66%. %. The volatility of related hype on Builddirect Tehcnologies is about 22400.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.06. About 67.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.03. Builddirect Tehcnologies had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Builddirect Tehcnologies to cross-verify your projections.

Builddirect Tehcnologies Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Builddirect Tehcnologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Builddirect Tehcnologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Builddirect Tehcnologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Builddirect Tehcnologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Builddirect Tehcnologies

For every potential investor in Builddirect, whether a beginner or expert, Builddirect Tehcnologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Builddirect Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Builddirect. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Builddirect Tehcnologies' price trends.

Builddirect Tehcnologies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Builddirect Tehcnologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Builddirect Tehcnologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Builddirect Tehcnologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Builddirect Tehcnologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Builddirect Tehcnologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Builddirect Tehcnologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Builddirect Tehcnologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Builddirect Tehcnologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Builddirect Tehcnologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Builddirect Tehcnologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Builddirect Tehcnologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting builddirect stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Builddirect Tehcnologies

The number of cover stories for Builddirect Tehcnologies depends on current market conditions and Builddirect Tehcnologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Builddirect Tehcnologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Builddirect Tehcnologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Builddirect Stock Analysis

When running Builddirect Tehcnologies' price analysis, check to measure Builddirect Tehcnologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Builddirect Tehcnologies is operating at the current time. Most of Builddirect Tehcnologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Builddirect Tehcnologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Builddirect Tehcnologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Builddirect Tehcnologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.