Doubleline Infrastructure Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

BILTX Fund  USD 9.56  0.03  0.31%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Doubleline Infrastructure Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.72. Doubleline Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Doubleline Infrastructure's share price is at 51 suggesting that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Doubleline Infrastructure, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 51

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Doubleline Infrastructure's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Doubleline Infrastructure Income, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Doubleline Infrastructure hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Doubleline Infrastructure Income from the perspective of Doubleline Infrastructure response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Doubleline Infrastructure Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.72.

Doubleline Infrastructure after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.56  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Doubleline Infrastructure to cross-verify your projections.

Doubleline Infrastructure Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Doubleline price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Doubleline using various technical indicators. When you analyze Doubleline charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Doubleline Infrastructure simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Doubleline Infrastructure Income are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Doubleline Infrastructure prices get older.

Doubleline Infrastructure Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Doubleline Infrastructure Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Doubleline Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Doubleline Infrastructure's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Doubleline Infrastructure Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Doubleline InfrastructureDoubleline Infrastructure Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Doubleline Infrastructure Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Doubleline Infrastructure's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Doubleline Infrastructure's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.40 and 9.72, respectively. We have considered Doubleline Infrastructure's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.56
9.56
Expected Value
9.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Doubleline Infrastructure mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Doubleline Infrastructure mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.8744
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.012
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0013
SAESum of the absolute errors0.7196
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Doubleline Infrastructure Income forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Doubleline Infrastructure observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Doubleline Infrastructure

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Doubleline Infrastructure. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Doubleline Infrastructure's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.409.569.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.399.559.71
Details

Doubleline Infrastructure After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Doubleline Infrastructure at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Doubleline Infrastructure or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Doubleline Infrastructure, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Doubleline Infrastructure Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Doubleline Infrastructure's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Doubleline Infrastructure's historical news coverage. Doubleline Infrastructure's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.40 and 9.72, respectively. We have considered Doubleline Infrastructure's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
9.56
9.56
After-hype Price
9.72
Upside
Doubleline Infrastructure is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Doubleline Infrastructure is based on 3 months time horizon.

Doubleline Infrastructure Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Doubleline Infrastructure is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Doubleline Infrastructure backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Doubleline Infrastructure, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.00  
0.16
 0.00  
 0.00  
2 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.56
9.56
0.00 
1,600  
Notes

Doubleline Infrastructure Hype Timeline

Doubleline Infrastructure is currently traded for 9.56. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Doubleline is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Doubleline Infrastructure is about 16.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.56. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Doubleline Infrastructure to cross-verify your projections.

Doubleline Infrastructure Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Doubleline Infrastructure's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Doubleline Infrastructure's future price movements. Getting to know how Doubleline Infrastructure's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Doubleline Infrastructure may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PPTPutnam Premier Income(0.09)5 per month 0.50 (0.11) 1.12 (1.11) 2.53 
GNTGAMCO Natural Resources(0.01)2 per month 1.26  0.17  2.31 (2.37) 7.27 
HPFJohn Hancock Preferred 0.05 22 per month 0.37 (0.27) 0.57 (0.55) 1.49 
NCICXNew Enant Income 0.00 0 per month 0.13 (0.70) 0.23 (0.19) 0.56 
KTFDWS Municipal Income(0.09)9 per month 0.27 (0.30) 0.45 (0.55) 1.55 
HIOWestern Asset High 0.05 7 per month 0.46 (0.12) 1.08 (0.80) 2.66 
QGRPXUbs Quality Growth(9.71)1 per month 0.00 (0.12) 1.36 (1.75) 4.72 
MNOSXManning Napier Overseas 0.00 0 per month 0.59 (0.05) 1.31 (1.29) 3.40 
HNCYXThe Hartford International 0.00 0 per month 1.01 (0.05) 1.39 (2.07) 4.12 
HNCAXThe Hartford International 0.00 0 per month 1.02 (0.06) 1.40 (2.07) 4.06 

Other Forecasting Options for Doubleline Infrastructure

For every potential investor in Doubleline, whether a beginner or expert, Doubleline Infrastructure's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Doubleline Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Doubleline. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Doubleline Infrastructure's price trends.

Doubleline Infrastructure Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Doubleline Infrastructure mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Doubleline Infrastructure could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Doubleline Infrastructure by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Doubleline Infrastructure Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Doubleline Infrastructure mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Doubleline Infrastructure shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Doubleline Infrastructure mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Doubleline Infrastructure Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Doubleline Infrastructure Risk Indicators

The analysis of Doubleline Infrastructure's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Doubleline Infrastructure's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting doubleline mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Doubleline Infrastructure

The number of cover stories for Doubleline Infrastructure depends on current market conditions and Doubleline Infrastructure's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Doubleline Infrastructure is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Doubleline Infrastructure's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Doubleline Mutual Fund

Doubleline Infrastructure financial ratios help investors to determine whether Doubleline Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Doubleline with respect to the benefits of owning Doubleline Infrastructure security.
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