Bellway Plc Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BLWYF Stock | USD 35.50 0.00 0.00% |
Bellway Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bellway Plc's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Bellway Plc's pink sheet price is roughly 66 suggesting that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors as of 26th of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bellway, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Bellway Plc hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bellway plc from the perspective of Bellway Plc response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bellway plc on the next trading day is expected to be 35.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.68. Bellway Plc after-hype prediction price | USD 35.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Bellway |
Bellway Plc Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bellway price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bellway using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bellway charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bellway Plc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bellway plc on the next trading day is expected to be 35.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bellway Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bellway Plc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bellway Plc Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bellway Plc | Bellway Plc Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bellway Plc Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bellway Plc's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bellway Plc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.31 and 36.88, respectively. We have considered Bellway Plc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bellway Plc pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bellway Plc pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3407 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0603 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.6795 |
Predictive Modules for Bellway Plc
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bellway plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bellway Plc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bellway Plc After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bellway Plc at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bellway Plc or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Bellway Plc, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bellway Plc Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bellway Plc's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bellway Plc's historical news coverage. Bellway Plc's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34.22 and 36.78, respectively. We have considered Bellway Plc's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bellway Plc is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bellway plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bellway Plc Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bellway Plc is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bellway Plc backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bellway Plc, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
35.50 | 35.50 | 0.00 |
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Bellway Plc Hype Timeline
Bellway plc is currently traded for 35.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Bellway is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bellway Plc is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.50. About 62.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.55. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Bellway plc last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bellway Plc to cross-verify your projections.Bellway Plc Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bellway Plc's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bellway Plc's future price movements. Getting to know how Bellway Plc's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bellway Plc may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BKGFF | The Berkeley Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.38 | |
| PSMMF | Persimmon PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PSMMY | Persimmon Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.45 | 0.10 | 2.97 | (2.50) | 8.91 | |
| TWODY | Taylor Wimpey PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.53 | (0.04) | 2.28 | (2.56) | 6.81 | |
| BTDPY | Barratt Developments PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.87 | (0.02) | 3.27 | (3.28) | 8.84 | |
| TWODF | Taylor Wimpey plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.04 | (0.03) | 4.51 | (5.04) | 12.64 | |
| WLWHF | Woolworths Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SDIPF | Frasers Group plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.74 | |
| PNDXF | Pandox AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.91 | |
| JBFCY | Jollibee Foods Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.01 | (5.07) | 14.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bellway Plc
For every potential investor in Bellway, whether a beginner or expert, Bellway Plc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bellway Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bellway. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bellway Plc's price trends.Bellway Plc Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bellway Plc pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bellway Plc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bellway Plc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bellway Plc Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bellway Plc pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bellway Plc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bellway Plc pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Bellway plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bellway Plc Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bellway Plc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bellway Plc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bellway pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.383 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Variance | 1.64 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bellway Plc
The number of cover stories for Bellway Plc depends on current market conditions and Bellway Plc's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bellway Plc is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bellway Plc's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bellway Plc Short Properties
Bellway Plc's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bellway Plc's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bellway plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bellway Plc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bellway Plc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 123.5 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 157.2 M |
Other Information on Investing in Bellway Pink Sheet
Bellway Plc financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bellway Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bellway with respect to the benefits of owning Bellway Plc security.