BMC Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| BMC Stock | 114.60 4.20 3.80% |
BMC |
BMC Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of BMC on the next trading day is expected to be 113.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57, mean absolute percentage error of 4.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BMC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BMC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
BMC Stock Forecast Pattern
BMC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting BMC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BMC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 111.39 and 116.07, respectively. We have considered BMC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BMC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BMC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5289 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5736 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 95.9921 |
Predictive Modules for BMC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BMC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for BMC
For every potential investor in BMC, whether a beginner or expert, BMC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BMC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BMC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BMC's price trends.BMC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BMC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BMC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BMC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BMC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BMC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BMC's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
BMC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BMC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BMC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BMC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BMC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
BMC Risk Indicators
The analysis of BMC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BMC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bmc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Thematic Opportunities
Explore Investment Opportunities
Additional Tools for BMC Stock Analysis
When running BMC's price analysis, check to measure BMC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BMC is operating at the current time. Most of BMC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BMC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BMC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BMC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.