Biomea Fusion Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BMEA Stock | USD 1.26 0.04 3.08% |
Biomea Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Biomea Fusion stock prices and determine the direction of Biomea Fusion's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Biomea Fusion's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the RSI of Biomea Fusion's share price is approaching 46 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Biomea Fusion, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.23) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.49) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.05) | Wall Street Target Price 7 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.29) |
Using Biomea Fusion hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Biomea Fusion from the perspective of Biomea Fusion response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Biomea Fusion using Biomea Fusion's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Biomea using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Biomea Fusion's stock price.
Biomea Fusion Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Biomea Fusion's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Biomea. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Biomea Fusion stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 1.6827 | Short Percent 0.1598 | Short Ratio 6.45 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.5 M | 50 Day MA 1.2809 |
Biomea Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Biomea Fusion on the next trading day is expected to be 1.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.50.Biomea Fusion Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Biomea Fusion's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Biomea. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Biomea can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Biomea Fusion. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Biomea Fusion's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Biomea Fusion.
Biomea Fusion Implied Volatility | 2.19 |
Biomea Fusion's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Biomea Fusion stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Biomea Fusion's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Biomea Fusion stock will not fluctuate a lot when Biomea Fusion's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Biomea Fusion on the next trading day is expected to be 1.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.50. Biomea Fusion after-hype prediction price | USD 1.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Biomea Fusion to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Biomea contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Biomea Fusion will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.14% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Biomea Fusion trading at USD 1.26, that is roughly USD 0.001725 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Biomea Fusion's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Biomea Fusion options at the current volatility level of 2.19%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Biomea Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Biomea Fusion's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Biomea Fusion's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Biomea Fusion stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Biomea Fusion's open interest, investors have to compare it to Biomea Fusion's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Biomea Fusion is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Biomea. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Biomea Fusion Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Biomea price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Biomea using various technical indicators. When you analyze Biomea charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Biomea Fusion Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Biomea Fusion's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2020-03-31 | Previous Quarter 56.2 M | Current Value 46.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 61.7 M |
Biomea Fusion Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Biomea Fusion on the next trading day is expected to be 1.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Biomea Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Biomea Fusion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Biomea Fusion Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Biomea Fusion | Biomea Fusion Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Biomea Fusion Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Biomea Fusion's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Biomea Fusion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 6.84, respectively. We have considered Biomea Fusion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Biomea Fusion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Biomea Fusion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.7355 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0902 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0714 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.4996 |
Predictive Modules for Biomea Fusion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Biomea Fusion. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Biomea Fusion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Biomea Fusion After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Biomea Fusion at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Biomea Fusion or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Biomea Fusion, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Biomea Fusion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Biomea Fusion's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Biomea Fusion's historical news coverage. Biomea Fusion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 6.78, respectively. We have considered Biomea Fusion's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Biomea Fusion is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Biomea Fusion is based on 3 months time horizon.
Biomea Fusion Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Biomea Fusion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Biomea Fusion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Biomea Fusion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 5.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.26 | 1.26 | 0.00 |
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Biomea Fusion Hype Timeline
Biomea Fusion is currently traded for 1.26. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Biomea is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Biomea Fusion is about 139000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.26. About 37.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.25. Biomea Fusion had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Biomea Fusion to cross-verify your projections.Biomea Fusion Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Biomea Fusion's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Biomea Fusion's future price movements. Getting to know how Biomea Fusion's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Biomea Fusion may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RPTX | Repare Therapeutics | 0.07 | 8 per month | 1.49 | 0.11 | 3.95 | (3.26) | 35.71 | |
| CBUS | Cibus Global LLC | (0.07) | 5 per month | 5.88 | 0.04 | 11.03 | (9.37) | 33.18 | |
| IMUX | Immunic | (0.05) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 9.43 | (6.58) | 21.44 | |
| GUTS | Fractyl Health Common | 0.02 | 16 per month | 3.62 | 0.09 | 11.89 | (5.80) | 26.39 | |
| UNCY | Unicycive Therapeutics | (0.32) | 8 per month | 4.10 | 0.13 | 7.31 | (6.59) | 17.45 | |
| CAMP | CAMP4 THERAPEUTICS PORATION | 0.02 | 22 per month | 7.14 | 0.06 | 12.31 | (14.21) | 47.02 | |
| ALXO | Alx Oncology Holdings | (0.14) | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 12.82 | (9.41) | 27.69 | |
| PMVP | Pmv Pharmaceuticals | 0.03 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.98 | (4.58) | 13.80 | |
| ADVM | Adverum Biotechnologies | (0.14) | 32 per month | 3.70 | 0.07 | 10.34 | (6.79) | 40.97 | |
| STRO | Sutro Biopharma | 0.54 | 11 per month | 5.30 | 0.11 | 11.76 | (7.78) | 27.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Biomea Fusion
For every potential investor in Biomea, whether a beginner or expert, Biomea Fusion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Biomea Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Biomea. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Biomea Fusion's price trends.Biomea Fusion Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Biomea Fusion stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Biomea Fusion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Biomea Fusion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Biomea Fusion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Biomea Fusion stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Biomea Fusion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Biomea Fusion stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Biomea Fusion entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.26 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.26 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 46.17 |
Biomea Fusion Risk Indicators
The analysis of Biomea Fusion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Biomea Fusion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting biomea stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.38 | |||
| Variance | 28.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 29.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 26.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Biomea Fusion
The number of cover stories for Biomea Fusion depends on current market conditions and Biomea Fusion's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Biomea Fusion is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Biomea Fusion's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Biomea Fusion Short Properties
Biomea Fusion's future price predictability will typically decrease when Biomea Fusion's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Biomea Fusion often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Biomea Fusion's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Biomea Fusion's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 58.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Biomea Fusion to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Biomea Stock refer to our How to Trade Biomea Stock guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Biomea Fusion. Projected growth potential of Biomea fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Biomea Fusion assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Investors evaluate Biomea Fusion using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Biomea Fusion's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Biomea Fusion's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Biomea Fusion's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Biomea Fusion should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Biomea Fusion's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.