Bluemount Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BMHL Stock   3.75  0.05  1.32%   
Bluemount Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Bluemount Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bluemount Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bluemount Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Bluemount Holdings' share price is at 54 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bluemount Holdings, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Bluemount Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Bluemount Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Bluemount Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Bluemount Holdings Limited, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Bluemount Holdings' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.43)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.993
Using Bluemount Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bluemount Holdings Limited from the perspective of Bluemount Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bluemount Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 3.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.01.

Bluemount Holdings after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 3.74  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bluemount Holdings to cross-verify your projections.

Bluemount Holdings Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Bluemount price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bluemount using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bluemount charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Bluemount Holdings Cash Forecast

To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Bluemount Holdings' financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
5.5 M
Current Value
5.1 M
Quarterly Volatility
1.6 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Bluemount Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bluemount Holdings Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bluemount Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bluemount Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 3.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.01.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bluemount Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bluemount Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bluemount Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bluemount Holdings  Bluemount Holdings Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Bluemount Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bluemount Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bluemount Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 8.51, respectively. We have considered Bluemount Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.75
3.81
Expected Value
8.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bluemount Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bluemount Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0539
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1131
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0326
SAESum of the absolute errors7.0094
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bluemount Holdings Limited. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Bluemount Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Bluemount Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bluemount Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.193.748.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.153.057.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bluemount Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bluemount Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bluemount Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bluemount Holdings.

Bluemount Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Bluemount Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bluemount Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bluemount Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Bluemount Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Bluemount Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bluemount Holdings' historical news coverage. Bluemount Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 8.44, respectively. We have considered Bluemount Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
3.75
3.74
After-hype Price
8.44
Upside
Bluemount Holdings is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bluemount Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Bluemount Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bluemount Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bluemount Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bluemount Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10 
4.70
  0.01 
  0.01 
2 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
3.75
3.74
0.27 
6,714  
Notes

Bluemount Holdings Hype Timeline

Bluemount Holdings is currently traded for 3.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Bluemount is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.74. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Bluemount Holdings is about 4316.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.74. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bluemount Holdings to cross-verify your projections.

Bluemount Holdings Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Bluemount Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bluemount Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Bluemount Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bluemount Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GRANGrande Group Limited(0.06)4 per month 6.75  0.01  13.37 (12.76) 55.88 
GECCGreat Elm Capital 0.13 8 per month 0.00 (0.04) 2.89 (4.72) 9.09 
OPPJWisdomTree Japan Opportunities(0.17)2 per month 0.85  0.17  1.99 (1.79) 4.21 
PFXPhenixfin 0.02 13 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.45 (2.82) 10.53 
NXCNuveen California Select 0.01 2 per month 0.21 (0.10) 0.68 (0.46) 1.98 
STKESol Strategies Common(0.46)10 per month 0.00 (0.12) 11.80 (9.17) 29.73 
HNNAHennessy Ad(0.48)12 per month 1.53  0.07  2.50 (2.50) 10.92 
OFSOFS Capital Corp 0.01 2 per month 0.00 (0.13) 4.51 (5.92) 16.14 
MAASHighest Performances Holdings 0.02 5 per month 3.61  0.19  8.26 (6.17) 20.85 

Other Forecasting Options for Bluemount Holdings

For every potential investor in Bluemount, whether a beginner or expert, Bluemount Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bluemount Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bluemount. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bluemount Holdings' price trends.

Bluemount Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bluemount Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bluemount Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bluemount Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bluemount Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bluemount Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bluemount Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bluemount Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bluemount Holdings Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bluemount Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bluemount Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bluemount Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bluemount stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Bluemount Holdings

The number of cover stories for Bluemount Holdings depends on current market conditions and Bluemount Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bluemount Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bluemount Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
When determining whether Bluemount Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Bluemount Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Bluemount Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Bluemount Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bluemount Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Is Capital Markets space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bluemount Holdings. If investors know Bluemount will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bluemount Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.43)
Earnings Share
0.05
Revenue Per Share
2.228
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.993
Return On Assets
0.0906
The market value of Bluemount Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bluemount that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bluemount Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bluemount Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bluemount Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bluemount Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bluemount Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bluemount Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bluemount Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.