Applied DNA Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BNBX Stock   1.59  0.05  3.05%   
Applied Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Applied DNA's share price is approaching 36 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Applied DNA, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 36

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Applied DNA's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Applied DNA Sciences, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Applied DNA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applied DNA Sciences from the perspective of Applied DNA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied DNA Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 2.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.38.

Applied DNA after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 1.59  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied DNA to cross-verify your projections.

Applied DNA Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Applied DNA's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
1.5 M
Current Value
1.4 M
Quarterly Volatility
3.1 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Applied DNA is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Applied DNA Sciences value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Applied DNA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied DNA Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 2.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.38.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied DNA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Applied DNA Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Applied DNA  Applied DNA Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Applied DNA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Applied DNA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied DNA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 9.55, respectively. We have considered Applied DNA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.59
2.08
Expected Value
9.55
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied DNA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied DNA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.3985
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2194
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0987
SAESum of the absolute errors13.3843
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Applied DNA Sciences. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Applied DNA. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Applied DNA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied DNA Sciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.081.599.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.538.95
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Applied DNA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Applied DNA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Applied DNA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Applied DNA Sciences.

Applied DNA After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Applied DNA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Applied DNA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Applied DNA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Applied DNA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Applied DNA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Applied DNA's historical news coverage. Applied DNA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 9.01, respectively. We have considered Applied DNA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1.59
1.59
After-hype Price
9.01
Upside
Applied DNA is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Applied DNA Sciences is based on 3 months time horizon.

Applied DNA Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Applied DNA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applied DNA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applied DNA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.08 
7.47
  0.19 
  0.09 
9 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1.59
1.59
0.00 
4,150  
Notes

Applied DNA Hype Timeline

Applied DNA Sciences is currently traded for 1.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Applied is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Applied DNA is about 8586.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.50. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied DNA to cross-verify your projections.

Applied DNA Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Applied DNA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Applied DNA's future price movements. Getting to know how Applied DNA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Applied DNA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NDRAENDRA Life Sciences(0.83)8 per month 0.00 (0.05) 12.24 (11.36) 38.62 
BNGOBionano Genomics 0.02 10 per month 0.00 (0.11) 4.61 (4.73) 15.75 
VEROVenus Concept 0.00 0 per month 10.71  0.08  8.14 (14.29) 516.97 
RDHLRedhill Biopharma 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.01) 7.77 (6.14) 46.87 
CANFCan Fite Biopharma 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 10.40 (8.59) 38.42 
OGENOragenics(0.02)3 per month 0.00 (0.19) 4.55 (7.53) 19.90 
BGMSBio Green Med 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 11.89 (8.79) 25.45 
NAOVNAOV Old 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 10.43 (9.07) 36.24 
ISPCiSpecimen(0.02)5 per month 0.00 (0.14) 11.54 (12.50) 37.80 
KZIAKazia Therapeutics Ltd(0.02)3 per month 10.10  0.06  14.69 (18.36) 78.79 

Other Forecasting Options for Applied DNA

For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied DNA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied DNA's price trends.

Applied DNA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied DNA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied DNA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied DNA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Applied DNA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied DNA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied DNA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied DNA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied DNA Sciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Applied DNA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Applied DNA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied DNA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Applied DNA

The number of cover stories for Applied DNA depends on current market conditions and Applied DNA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Applied DNA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Applied DNA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Applied Stock Analysis

When running Applied DNA's price analysis, check to measure Applied DNA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied DNA is operating at the current time. Most of Applied DNA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied DNA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied DNA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied DNA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.