Boot Barn Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BOOT Stock | USD 183.98 4.50 2.39% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Boot Barn Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 183.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 236.47. Boot Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Boot Barn's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.442 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.446 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.3068 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.3165 | Wall Street Target Price 231.8572 |
Using Boot Barn hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Boot Barn Holdings from the perspective of Boot Barn response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Boot Barn using Boot Barn's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Boot using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Boot Barn's stock price.
Boot Barn Short Interest
An investor who is long Boot Barn may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Boot Barn and may potentially protect profits, hedge Boot Barn with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 167.389 | Short Percent 0.1604 | Short Ratio 7.01 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.6 M | 50 Day MA 190.2888 |
Boot Barn Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Boot Barn's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Boot. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Boot can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Boot Barn Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Boot Barn Implied Volatility | 0.57 |
Boot Barn's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Boot Barn Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Boot Barn's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Boot Barn stock will not fluctuate a lot when Boot Barn's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Boot Barn Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 183.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 236.47. Boot Barn after-hype prediction price | USD 183.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boot Barn to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Boot contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Boot Barn Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0356% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Boot Barn trading at USD 183.98, that is roughly USD 0.0655 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Boot Barn's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Boot Barn Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Boot Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Boot Barn's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Boot Barn's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Boot Barn stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Boot Barn's open interest, investors have to compare it to Boot Barn's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Boot Barn is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Boot. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Boot Barn Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Boot price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Boot using various technical indicators. When you analyze Boot charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Boot Barn Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Boot Barn Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 183.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.94, mean absolute percentage error of 23.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 236.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Boot Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Boot Barn's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Boot Barn Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Boot Barn | Boot Barn Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Boot Barn Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Boot Barn's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Boot Barn's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 181.39 and 186.57, respectively. We have considered Boot Barn's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Boot Barn stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Boot Barn stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.442 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2425 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.9412 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 236.47 |
Predictive Modules for Boot Barn
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Boot Barn Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Boot Barn After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Boot Barn at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Boot Barn or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Boot Barn, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Boot Barn Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Boot Barn's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Boot Barn's historical news coverage. Boot Barn's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 181.39 and 186.57, respectively. We have considered Boot Barn's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Boot Barn is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Boot Barn Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Boot Barn Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Boot Barn is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Boot Barn backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Boot Barn, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 2.59 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
183.98 | 183.98 | 0.00 |
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Boot Barn Hype Timeline
Boot Barn Holdings is currently traded for 183.98. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Boot is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Boot Barn is about 432.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 184.05. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Boot Barn was currently reported as 39.51. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.72. Boot Barn Holdings recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.79. The entity last dividend was issued on the May 18, 2012. The firm had 1:25 split on the 29th of October 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boot Barn to cross-verify your projections.Boot Barn Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Boot Barn's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Boot Barn's future price movements. Getting to know how Boot Barn's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Boot Barn may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| URBN | Urban Outfitters | 2.48 | 9 per month | 3.08 | (0) | 5.28 | (4.20) | 25.85 | |
| BFAM | Bright Horizons Family | 0.47 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.48 | (3.15) | 23.49 | |
| ATAT | Atour Lifestyle Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.36 | (3.79) | 11.35 | |
| ETSY | Etsy Inc | 1.62 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.69 | (5.03) | 15.04 | |
| VFC | VF Corporation | 0.12 | 23 per month | 2.64 | 0.14 | 5.85 | (3.54) | 18.07 | |
| WING | Wingstop | 1.73 | 29 per month | 2.99 | 0.02 | 7.69 | (4.51) | 15.81 | |
| LTH | Life Time Group | 1.33 | 10 per month | 1.66 | 0.08 | 3.90 | (3.10) | 9.67 | |
| MAT | Mattel Inc | (0.61) | 9 per month | 1.89 | 0.06 | 3.98 | (3.26) | 8.61 | |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | (0.88) | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.13 | 3.50 | (2.18) | 8.69 | |
| FND | Floor Decor Holdings | (0.27) | 10 per month | 2.64 | 0.01 | 4.11 | (4.55) | 12.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Boot Barn
For every potential investor in Boot, whether a beginner or expert, Boot Barn's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Boot Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Boot. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Boot Barn's price trends.Boot Barn Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Boot Barn stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Boot Barn could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Boot Barn by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Boot Barn Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Boot Barn stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Boot Barn shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Boot Barn stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Boot Barn Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0389 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.62) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 183.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 183.58 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 7.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.65) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.50) |
Boot Barn Risk Indicators
The analysis of Boot Barn's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Boot Barn's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting boot stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Variance | 6.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Boot Barn
The number of cover stories for Boot Barn depends on current market conditions and Boot Barn's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Boot Barn is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Boot Barn's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Boot Barn Short Properties
Boot Barn's future price predictability will typically decrease when Boot Barn's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Boot Barn Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Boot Barn's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Boot Barn's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 69.8 M |
Additional Tools for Boot Stock Analysis
When running Boot Barn's price analysis, check to measure Boot Barn's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Boot Barn is operating at the current time. Most of Boot Barn's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Boot Barn's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Boot Barn's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Boot Barn to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.