Box Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| BOX Stock | USD 26.51 0.37 1.38% |
Box Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength indicator of Box's share price is approaching 36 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Box, making its price go up or down. Momentum 36
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.2872 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.452 | Wall Street Target Price 35.625 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.3138 |
Using Box hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Box Inc from the perspective of Box response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Box using Box's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Box using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Box's stock price.
Box Short Interest
An investor who is long Box may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Box and may potentially protect profits, hedge Box with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 31.8894 | Short Percent 0.122 | Short Ratio 5.08 | Shares Short Prior Month 14.9 M | 50 Day MA 29.6826 |
Box Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Box Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 26.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.18.Box Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Box's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Box. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Box can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Box Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Box's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Box.
Box Implied Volatility | 0.51 |
Box's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Box Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Box's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Box stock will not fluctuate a lot when Box's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Box Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 26.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.18. Box after-hype prediction price | USD 26.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Box to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Box contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Box Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Box trading at USD 26.51, that is roughly USD 0.00845 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Box's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Box Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Box Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Box's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Box's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Box stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Box's open interest, investors have to compare it to Box's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Box is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Box. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Box Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Box price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Box using various technical indicators. When you analyze Box charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Box Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Box Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 26.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Box Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Box's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Box Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Box | Box Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Box Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Box's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Box's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.47 and 28.35, respectively. We have considered Box's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Box stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Box stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1014 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4437 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.18 |
Predictive Modules for Box
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Box Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Box After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Box at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Box or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Box, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Box Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Box's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Box's historical news coverage. Box's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.56 and 28.44, respectively. We have considered Box's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Box is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Box Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Box Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Box is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Box backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Box, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 1.94 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
26.51 | 26.50 | 0.04 |
|
Box Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Box Inc is traded for 26.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Box is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 26.5. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Box is about 862.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.57. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company last dividend was issued on the November 19, 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Box to cross-verify your projections.Box Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Box's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Box's future price movements. Getting to know how Box's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Box may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QLYS | Qualys Inc | (0.44) | 12 per month | 1.89 | (0.01) | 2.52 | (3.12) | 25.56 | |
| ACIW | ACI Worldwide | (0.61) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.08 | (3.30) | 9.43 | |
| WEX | Wex Inc | 4.35 | 10 per month | 1.66 | (0.01) | 3.31 | (2.82) | 8.14 | |
| DLO | Dlocal | 0.61 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.11 | (3.91) | 11.21 | |
| STNE | StoneCo | (0.16) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.06 | (6.88) | 15.52 | |
| CLSK | CleanSpark | 0.09 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 12.27 | (9.26) | 33.02 | |
| DOCN | DigitalOcean Holdings | 3.38 | 11 per month | 2.40 | 0.15 | 7.04 | (4.19) | 24.58 | |
| BDC | Belden Inc | 2.68 | 10 per month | 1.76 | (0.04) | 3.11 | (3.32) | 10.85 | |
| OS | OneStream Class A | 0.01 | 9 per month | 2.55 | 0.09 | 6.39 | (4.81) | 29.57 | |
| OSIS | OSI Systems | (7.66) | 10 per month | 2.34 | 0.03 | 4.86 | (3.74) | 20.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Box
For every potential investor in Box, whether a beginner or expert, Box's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Box Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Box. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Box's price trends.Box Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Box stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Box could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Box by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Box Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Box stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Box shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Box stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Box Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 26.51 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 26.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.18) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.37) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 36.77 |
Box Risk Indicators
The analysis of Box's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Box's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting box stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Variance | 3.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Box
The number of cover stories for Box depends on current market conditions and Box's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Box is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Box's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Box Short Properties
Box's future price predictability will typically decrease when Box's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Box Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Box's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Box's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 148.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 722.8 M |
Additional Tools for Box Stock Analysis
When running Box's price analysis, check to measure Box's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Box is operating at the current time. Most of Box's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Box's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Box's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Box to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.