VanEck Brazil Etf Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BRF Etf | USD 18.50 0.48 2.53% |
VanEck Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of VanEck Brazil's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of VanEck Brazil's etf price is roughly 64 suggesting that the etf is rather overbought by investors as of 31st of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling VanEck, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using VanEck Brazil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VanEck Brazil Small Cap from the perspective of VanEck Brazil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards VanEck Brazil using VanEck Brazil's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards VanEck using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of VanEck Brazil's stock price.
VanEck Brazil Implied Volatility | 0.45 |
VanEck Brazil's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of VanEck Brazil Small Cap stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if VanEck Brazil's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that VanEck Brazil stock will not fluctuate a lot when VanEck Brazil's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VanEck Brazil Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 18.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.72. VanEck Brazil after-hype prediction price | USD 18.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Brazil to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current VanEck contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that VanEck Brazil Small Cap will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0281% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With VanEck Brazil trading at USD 18.5, that is roughly USD 0.005203 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating VanEck Brazil's daily price movement you should consider acquiring VanEck Brazil Small Cap options at the current volatility level of 0.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 VanEck Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast VanEck Brazil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in VanEck Brazil's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for VanEck Brazil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current VanEck Brazil's open interest, investors have to compare it to VanEck Brazil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of VanEck Brazil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in VanEck. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
VanEck Brazil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VanEck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VanEck using various technical indicators. When you analyze VanEck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VanEck Brazil Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VanEck Brazil Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 18.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VanEck Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VanEck Brazil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VanEck Brazil Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VanEck Brazil | VanEck Brazil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
VanEck Brazil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VanEck Brazil's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VanEck Brazil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.60 and 20.40, respectively. We have considered VanEck Brazil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VanEck Brazil etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VanEck Brazil etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8277 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0505 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2413 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0146 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.72 |
Predictive Modules for VanEck Brazil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Brazil Small. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VanEck Brazil After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VanEck Brazil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VanEck Brazil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of VanEck Brazil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VanEck Brazil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VanEck Brazil's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VanEck Brazil's historical news coverage. VanEck Brazil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.59 and 20.39, respectively. We have considered VanEck Brazil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
VanEck Brazil is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VanEck Brazil Small is based on 3 months time horizon.
VanEck Brazil Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as VanEck Brazil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VanEck Brazil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VanEck Brazil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 1.90 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 6 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.50 | 18.49 | 0.05 |
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VanEck Brazil Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January VanEck Brazil Small is traded for 18.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. VanEck is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 18.49. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on VanEck Brazil is about 3275.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.48. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.03. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Brazil to cross-verify your projections.VanEck Brazil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VanEck Brazil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VanEck Brazil's future price movements. Getting to know how VanEck Brazil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VanEck Brazil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SQLV | Royce Quant Small Cap | (0.12) | 2 per month | 0.74 | 0.02 | 2.27 | (1.36) | 5.04 | |
| FPA | First Trust Asia | (0.26) | 5 per month | 0.61 | 0.20 | 1.90 | (1.40) | 4.17 | |
| OTGL | OTG Latin America | 0.12 | 2 per month | 0.75 | 0.25 | 1.88 | (1.20) | 5.62 | |
| COWS | Amplify Cash Flow | (0.04) | 5 per month | 0.76 | 0.03 | 1.78 | (1.43) | 4.14 | |
| IDEC | Innovator ETFs Trust | (0.04) | 1 per month | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.69 | (0.57) | 2.29 | |
| RAYC | Rayliant Asset Management | (0.04) | 2 per month | 0.88 | 0.05 | 1.81 | (1.18) | 7.60 | |
| HDMV | First Trust Horizon | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.39 | 0.05 | 0.90 | (0.92) | 2.28 | |
| HAIL | SPDR SP Kensho | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.02 | (2.93) | 8.02 | |
| NBET | Neuberger Berman Energy | (0.18) | 1 per month | 0.59 | 0.13 | 1.38 | (1.15) | 3.50 | |
| FLSA | Franklin FTSE Saudi | (0.06) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.54 | (1.48) | 4.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for VanEck Brazil
For every potential investor in VanEck, whether a beginner or expert, VanEck Brazil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VanEck Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VanEck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VanEck Brazil's price trends.VanEck Brazil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VanEck Brazil etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VanEck Brazil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VanEck Brazil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VanEck Brazil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VanEck Brazil etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VanEck Brazil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VanEck Brazil etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VanEck Brazil Small Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 347.12 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.83) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.65 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.47) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.48) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 64.22 |
VanEck Brazil Risk Indicators
The analysis of VanEck Brazil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VanEck Brazil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaneck etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Variance | 3.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.85 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.43) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VanEck Brazil
The number of cover stories for VanEck Brazil depends on current market conditions and VanEck Brazil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VanEck Brazil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VanEck Brazil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Brazil to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Understanding VanEck Brazil Small requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects VanEck's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what VanEck Brazil's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push VanEck Brazil's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between VanEck Brazil's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding VanEck Brazil should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, VanEck Brazil's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.