Bri Chem Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BRY Stock | CAD 0.24 0.01 4.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bri Chem Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.50. Bri Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Bri Chem's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bri Chem's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bri Chem fundamentals over time.
Bri |
Bri Chem Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bri Chem Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bri Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bri Chem's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bri Chem Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bri Chem | Bri Chem Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bri Chem Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bri Chem's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bri Chem's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 7.47, respectively. We have considered Bri Chem's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bri Chem stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bri Chem stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.0042 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.001 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0082 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0323 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.5 |
Predictive Modules for Bri Chem
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bri Chem Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Bri Chem
For every potential investor in Bri, whether a beginner or expert, Bri Chem's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bri Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bri. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bri Chem's price trends.Bri Chem Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bri Chem stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bri Chem could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bri Chem by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bri Chem Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bri Chem's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bri Chem's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Bri Chem Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bri Chem stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bri Chem shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bri Chem stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bri Chem Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bri Chem Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bri Chem's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bri Chem's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bri stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.1 | |||
| Variance | 50.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 142.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 24.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (8.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Bri Chem
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bri Chem position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bri Chem will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Bri Stock
| 0.77 | BOFA | Bank of America | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | GS | GOLDMAN SACHS CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | GOOG | Alphabet CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | ENS | E Split Corp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bri Chem could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bri Chem when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bri Chem - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bri Chem Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Bri Chem is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bri Chem moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bri Chem Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bri Chem can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Bri Stock
Bri Chem financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bri Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bri with respect to the benefits of owning Bri Chem security.