British Amer Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BTI Stock | 67,643 563.00 0.84% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of British American Tobacco on the next trading day is expected to be 67,643 with a mean absolute deviation of 557.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34,029. British Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast British Amer stock prices and determine the direction of British American Tobacco's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of British Amer's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
British |
British Amer Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of British American Tobacco on the next trading day is expected to be 67,643 with a mean absolute deviation of 557.85, mean absolute percentage error of 558,452, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34,029.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict British Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that British Amer's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
British Amer Stock Forecast Pattern
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British Amer Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting British Amer's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. British Amer's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 67,642 and 67,644, respectively. We have considered British Amer's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of British Amer stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent British Amer stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 131.3434 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -50.0608 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 557.8464 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0088 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34028.63 |
Predictive Modules for British Amer
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as British American Tobacco. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for British Amer
For every potential investor in British, whether a beginner or expert, British Amer's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. British Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in British. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying British Amer's price trends.British Amer Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with British Amer stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of British Amer could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing British Amer by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
British American Tobacco Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of British Amer's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of British Amer's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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British Amer Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how British Amer stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading British Amer shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying British Amer stock market strength indicators, traders can identify British American Tobacco entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10111.49 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7608 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 67630.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 67634.33 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 8.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 294.5 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 563.0 |
British Amer Risk Indicators
The analysis of British Amer's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in British Amer's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting british stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8416 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Variance | 1.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in British Stock
When determining whether British American Tobacco offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of British Amer's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of British American Tobacco Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on British American Tobacco Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of British Amer to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.