Bit Origin Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BTOG Stock | USD 4.63 0.18 3.74% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bit Origin on the next trading day is expected to be 2.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.04. Bit Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bit Origin's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Bit Origin's share price is below 30 as of 23rd of January 2026 suggesting that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bit Origin, making its price go up or down. Momentum 24
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) |
Using Bit Origin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bit Origin from the perspective of Bit Origin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bit Origin on the next trading day is expected to be 2.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.04. Bit Origin after-hype prediction price | USD 4.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bit Origin to cross-verify your projections. Bit Origin Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bit price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bit using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bit charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bit Origin Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Bit Origin's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-09-30 | Previous Quarter 29.8 K | Current Value 55.6 K | Quarterly Volatility 2.3 M |
Bit Origin Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bit Origin on the next trading day is expected to be 2.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98, mean absolute percentage error of 1.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bit Origin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bit Origin Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bit Origin | Bit Origin Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bit Origin Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bit Origin's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bit Origin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 10.08, respectively. We have considered Bit Origin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bit Origin stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bit Origin stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.2584 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9846 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.084 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 61.0443 |
Predictive Modules for Bit Origin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bit Origin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bit Origin After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bit Origin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bit Origin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bit Origin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bit Origin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bit Origin's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bit Origin's historical news coverage. Bit Origin's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.23 and 12.52, respectively. We have considered Bit Origin's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bit Origin is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bit Origin is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bit Origin Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bit Origin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bit Origin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bit Origin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.32 | 7.95 | 0.39 | 0.07 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.63 | 4.63 | 0.00 |
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Bit Origin Hype Timeline
Bit Origin is currently traded for 4.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.39, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Bit is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -2.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bit Origin is about 26500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.56. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.84. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Bit Origin recorded a loss per share of 16.8. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:60 split on the 20th of January 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bit Origin to cross-verify your projections.Bit Origin Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bit Origin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bit Origin's future price movements. Getting to know how Bit Origin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bit Origin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NAII | Natural Alternatives International | 0.05 | 9 per month | 2.96 | 0.16 | 9.16 | (5.65) | 28.68 | |
| MWYN | Marwynn Holdings Common | 0.04 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.50 | (7.87) | 29.68 | |
| AACG | ATA Creativity Global | (0.16) | 4 per month | 4.69 | (0.01) | 8.89 | (8.51) | 21.67 | |
| JVA | Coffee Holding Co | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.54 | (4.41) | 16.33 | |
| MTEX | Mannatech Incorporated | (0.10) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.37 | (6.51) | 36.78 | |
| PLAG | Planet Green Holdings | (0.16) | 6 per month | 8.26 | 0.1 | 19.77 | (13.96) | 65.84 | |
| EDTK | Skillful Craftsman Education | (0.04) | 8 per month | 2.53 | (0.02) | 4.12 | (4.76) | 12.61 | |
| BEDU | Bright Scholar Education | (0.16) | 14 per month | 1.38 | 0.15 | 3.72 | (2.24) | 21.46 | |
| BON | Bon Natural Life | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.55 | (6.83) | 18.75 | |
| BLNE | Eastside Distilling | 0.31 | 11 per month | 6.79 | 0.03 | 13.82 | (10.41) | 27.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bit Origin
For every potential investor in Bit, whether a beginner or expert, Bit Origin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bit Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bit Origin's price trends.Bit Origin Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bit Origin stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bit Origin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bit Origin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bit Origin Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bit Origin stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bit Origin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bit Origin stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bit Origin entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 11105.01 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.32) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.91 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.81 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.37) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.18) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 24.89 |
Bit Origin Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bit Origin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bit Origin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.92 | |||
| Variance | 62.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bit Origin
The number of cover stories for Bit Origin depends on current market conditions and Bit Origin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bit Origin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bit Origin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bit Origin Short Properties
Bit Origin's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bit Origin's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bit Origin often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bit Origin's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bit Origin's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 385.1 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 55.6 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bit Origin to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Bit Stock please use our How to Invest in Bit Origin guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bit Origin. If investors know Bit will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bit Origin listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (16.80) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Bit Origin is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bit that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bit Origin's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bit Origin's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bit Origin's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bit Origin's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bit Origin's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bit Origin is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bit Origin's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.