BUFFALO DIVIDEND Mutual Fund Forward View

BUFDX Fund

USD 36.60 0.02 0.05%

Buffalo Dividend Focus's Naive Prediction forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The forecast is recalculated with each session so it does not rely on stale inputs. A small Bias confirms the model is not systematically over- or under-predicting. The Naive Prediction model projects BUFFALO DIVIDEND at 36.45 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.

A naive forecasting model for BUFFALO DIVIDEND is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for Buffalo Dividend Focus on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2026

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts BUFFALO DIVIDEND at 36.45 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 15.24 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks BUFFALO DIVIDEND's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest BUFFALO DIVIDEND

BUFFALO DIVIDEND Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

This forecast for BUFFALO DIVIDEND frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 35.63 and upside near 37.27. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.

Market Value

36.60

35.63

Downside

36.45

Expected Value

37.27

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for BUFFALO DIVIDEND mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	115.9068
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.2499
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0071
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	15.2449

The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that BUFFALO DIVIDEND price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for BUFFALO DIVIDEND

Bollinger Bands applied to BUFFALO DIVIDEND Mutual Fund price data measure how far BUFFALO DIVIDEND has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to BUFFALO DIVIDEND's price data. On-balance volume for BUFFALO DIVIDEND Mutual Fund creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in BUFFALO DIVIDEND. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for BUFFALO DIVIDEND's.

BUFFALO DIVIDEND Comparable Funds

These peer funds help position BUFFALO DIVIDEND within a broader category rather than against operating businesses. Looking across similar funds helps show whether BUFFALO DIVIDEND's pricing and risk profile are typical for the category. Category-relative analysis helps separate fund-specific behavior from broader market moves affecting the whole group.

Buffalo Large Cap Df Dent Small Foundry Partners Fundamental Hartford Schroders Small Nationwide Highmark Small Buffalo Growth Fund Voya Infrastructure Industrials Blackstone Gso Senior American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup SentinelOne CVS Health Corp

Risk & Return

Correlation

BUFFALO DIVIDEND Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for BUFFALO DIVIDEND quantify how the mutual fund responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in BUFFALO DIVIDEND. The Market Facilitation Index measures how efficiently price moves relative to volume — rising MFI with rising volume signals strong trend participation. Monitoring these indicators for BUFFALO DIVIDEND through complete market cycles reveals recurring patterns.

	Rate Of Daily Change	1.0
	Day Median Price	36.6
	Day Typical Price	36.6
	Price Action Indicator	0.01
	Period Momentum Indicator	0.02
	Relative Strength Index	58.86

BUFFALO DIVIDEND Risk Indicators

Analyzing BUFFALO DIVIDEND's risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in BUFFALO DIVIDEND helps place recent price behavior in context. These metrics are most informative when compared against similar equities with comparable growth profiles and market capitalization. When semi-deviation is high relative to standard deviation, BUFFALO DIVIDEND's losses have been disproportionately large compared to gains.

	Mean Deviation	0.5783
	Semi Deviation	0.7793
	Standard Deviation	0.8048
	Variance	0.6477
	Downside Variance	0.7591
	Semi Variance	0.6073
	Expected Short fall	-0.56

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average