KraneShares Trust Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BUYO Etf | 29.29 0.33 1.11% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of KraneShares Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 29.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.34. KraneShares Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of KraneShares Trust's share price is below 20 suggesting that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using KraneShares Trust hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of KraneShares Trust from the perspective of KraneShares Trust response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of KraneShares Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 29.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.34. KraneShares Trust after-hype prediction price | USD 29.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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KraneShares Trust Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine KraneShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for KraneShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze KraneShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
KraneShares Trust Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of KraneShares Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 29.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KraneShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KraneShares Trust's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
KraneShares Trust Etf Forecast Pattern
KraneShares Trust Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting KraneShares Trust's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. KraneShares Trust's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.81 and 30.86, respectively. We have considered KraneShares Trust's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KraneShares Trust etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KraneShares Trust etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9975 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2515 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.3413 |
Predictive Modules for KraneShares Trust
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KraneShares Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KraneShares Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
KraneShares Trust Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility
As far as predicting the price of KraneShares Trust at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in KraneShares Trust or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of KraneShares Trust, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
KraneShares Trust Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as KraneShares Trust is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading KraneShares Trust backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with KraneShares Trust, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
29.29 | 29.40 | 0.00 |
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KraneShares Trust Hype Timeline
KraneShares Trust is currently traded for 29.29. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. KraneShares is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on KraneShares Trust is about 12875.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.29. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out fundamental analysis of KraneShares Trust to check your projections.KraneShares Trust Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to KraneShares Trust's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict KraneShares Trust's future price movements. Getting to know how KraneShares Trust's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how KraneShares Trust may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PILL | Direxion Daily Pharmaceutical | (0.25) | 5 per month | 2.46 | 0.17 | 7.91 | (4.78) | 16.20 | |
| RULE | Collaborative Investment Series | 0.04 | 8 per month | 1.15 | 0.04 | 1.76 | (2.41) | 5.22 | |
| QIDX | Spinnaker ETF Series | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.63 | (0.08) | 1.21 | (1.12) | 3.12 | |
| CGRO | CoreValues Alpha Greater | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.90 | (1.92) | 5.57 | |
| DTAN | EA Series Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.71 | (0.02) | 1.28 | (1.13) | 4.05 | |
| JUNZ | TrueShares Structured Outcome | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.68 | (0.1) | 1.01 | (1.19) | 3.23 | |
| MRGR | ProShares Merger ETF | 0.07 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 0.52 | (0.41) | 1.25 | |
| IVRA | Invesco Real Assets | 0.1 | 4 per month | 0.71 | (0.07) | 1.13 | (1.05) | 2.96 | |
| WCME | First Trust Exchange Traded | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.96 | 0.03 | 1.84 | (1.45) | 4.65 | |
| FSBD | Fidelity | (0.02) | 2 per month | 0.13 | (0.26) | 0.67 | (0.38) | 1.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for KraneShares Trust
For every potential investor in KraneShares, whether a beginner or expert, KraneShares Trust's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. KraneShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in KraneShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying KraneShares Trust's price trends.KraneShares Trust Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KraneShares Trust etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KraneShares Trust could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KraneShares Trust by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
KraneShares Trust Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KraneShares Trust etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KraneShares Trust shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KraneShares Trust etf market strength indicators, traders can identify KraneShares Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
KraneShares Trust Risk Indicators
The analysis of KraneShares Trust's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KraneShares Trust's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kraneshares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7935 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7786 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6063 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for KraneShares Trust
The number of cover stories for KraneShares Trust depends on current market conditions and KraneShares Trust's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that KraneShares Trust is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about KraneShares Trust's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out fundamental analysis of KraneShares Trust to check your projections. To learn how to invest in KraneShares Etf, please use our How to Invest in KraneShares Trust guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
The market value of KraneShares Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of KraneShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of KraneShares Trust's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is KraneShares Trust's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because KraneShares Trust's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect KraneShares Trust's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between KraneShares Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if KraneShares Trust is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, KraneShares Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.