BitVentures Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression

BVC Stock   8.88  0.05  0.56%   
BitVentures Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BitVentures stock prices and determine the direction of BitVentures Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of BitVentures' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of relative strength index of BitVentures' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of BitVentures' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with BitVentures Limited, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using BitVentures hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BitVentures Limited from the perspective of BitVentures response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of BitVentures Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 7.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.88.

BitVentures after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.29  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BitVentures to cross-verify your projections.

BitVentures Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine BitVentures price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BitVentures using various technical indicators. When you analyze BitVentures charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
BitVentures polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for BitVentures Limited as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

BitVentures Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of BitVentures Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 7.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.13, mean absolute percentage error of 2.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.88.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BitVentures Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BitVentures' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BitVentures Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest BitVentures  BitVentures Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

BitVentures Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BitVentures' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BitVentures' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.09 and 19.97, respectively. We have considered BitVentures' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.88
7.93
Expected Value
19.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BitVentures stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BitVentures stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.7574
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1271
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1088
SAESum of the absolute errors69.88
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the BitVentures historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for BitVentures

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BitVentures Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BitVentures' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.469.2921.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.438.5620.59
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
7.3310.3513.38
Details

BitVentures After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of BitVentures at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BitVentures or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BitVentures, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

BitVentures Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting BitVentures' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BitVentures' historical news coverage. BitVentures' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.46 and 21.32, respectively. We have considered BitVentures' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
8.88
9.29
After-hype Price
21.32
Upside
BitVentures is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BitVentures Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.

BitVentures Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BitVentures is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BitVentures backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BitVentures, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.48 
12.03
  0.41 
  0.10 
4 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
8.88
9.29
4.62 
1,415  
Notes

BitVentures Hype Timeline

On the 5th of February BitVentures Limited is traded for 8.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.41, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. BitVentures is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.29 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 4.62%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.48%. The volatility of related hype on BitVentures is about 5755.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.98. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BitVentures to cross-verify your projections.

BitVentures Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to BitVentures' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BitVentures' future price movements. Getting to know how BitVentures' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BitVentures may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PSQHPSQ Holdings(0.01)9 per month 0.00 (0.37) 5.36 (8.53) 19.40 
QHQuhuo(0.09)7 per month 0.00 (0.01) 21.00 (13.49) 65.89 
APIAgora Inc 0.13 11 per month 2.48  0.08  4.88 (4.71) 15.98 
IDNIntellicheck Mobilisa(0.02)12 per month 3.14  0.05  5.94 (5.44) 47.19 
SAIHSAIHEAT Limited 0.03 7 per month 0.00 (0.02) 7.21 (8.99) 51.10 
SOGPLizhi Inc 1.97 3 per month 5.12  0.0006  10.82 (10.01) 37.07 
CMTLComtech Telecommunications Corp 0.07 8 per month 4.01  0.19  8.77 (6.75) 22.76 
ATHRAether Holdings 0.05 9 per month 0.00 (0.03) 7.88 (6.94) 25.31 
GCTSGCT Semiconductor Holding 0.04 8 per month 0.00 (0.06) 6.62 (7.94) 35.21 
UPLDUpland Software(0.08)8 per month 0.00 (0.25) 5.23 (5.42) 11.78 

Other Forecasting Options for BitVentures

For every potential investor in BitVentures, whether a beginner or expert, BitVentures' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BitVentures Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BitVentures. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BitVentures' price trends.

BitVentures Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BitVentures stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BitVentures could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BitVentures by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BitVentures Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BitVentures stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BitVentures shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BitVentures stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BitVentures Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BitVentures Risk Indicators

The analysis of BitVentures' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BitVentures' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bitventures stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for BitVentures

The number of cover stories for BitVentures depends on current market conditions and BitVentures' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BitVentures is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BitVentures' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

BitVentures Short Properties

BitVentures' future price predictability will typically decrease when BitVentures' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BitVentures Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BitVentures' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BitVentures' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding44.1 M
Short Term Investments8.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments9.7 M
When determining whether BitVentures Limited offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of BitVentures' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bitventures Limited Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bitventures Limited Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BitVentures to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Will Software - Application sector continue expanding? Could BitVentures diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BitVentures. Projected growth potential of BitVentures fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every BitVentures data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding BitVentures Limited requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects BitVentures's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what BitVentures' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push BitVentures' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between BitVentures' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding BitVentures should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, BitVentures' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.