BOVESPA Index Index Forecast - Simple Moving Average

BVSP Index   129,126  2,204  1.74%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of BOVESPA Index on the next trading day is expected to be 128,024 with a mean absolute deviation of 826.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48,786. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast BOVESPA Index's index prices and determine the direction of BOVESPA Index's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
A two period moving average forecast for BOVESPA Index is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

BOVESPA Index Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of BOVESPA Index on the next trading day is expected to be 128,024 with a mean absolute deviation of 826.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1,019,987, and the sum of the absolute errors of 48,786.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BOVESPA Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BOVESPA Index's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BOVESPA Index Index Forecast Pattern

BOVESPA Index Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BOVESPA Index's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BOVESPA Index's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 128,023 and 128,025, respectively. We have considered BOVESPA Index's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
129,126
128,023
Downside
128,024
Expected Value
128,025
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BOVESPA Index index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BOVESPA Index index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria128.27
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 205.5254
MADMean absolute deviation826.8814
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0063
SAESum of the absolute errors48786.0
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of BOVESPA Index price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of BOVESPA Index. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for BOVESPA Index

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BOVESPA Index. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for BOVESPA Index

For every potential investor in BOVESPA, whether a beginner or expert, BOVESPA Index's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BOVESPA Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BOVESPA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BOVESPA Index's price trends.

BOVESPA Index Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BOVESPA Index index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BOVESPA Index could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BOVESPA Index by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BOVESPA Index Technical and Predictive Analytics

The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BOVESPA Index's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BOVESPA Index's current price.

BOVESPA Index Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BOVESPA Index index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BOVESPA Index shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BOVESPA Index index market strength indicators, traders can identify BOVESPA Index entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BOVESPA Index Risk Indicators

The analysis of BOVESPA Index's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BOVESPA Index's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bovespa index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.