Babcock Wilcox Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BWSNDelisted Stock  USD 25.18  0.01  0.04%   
Babcock Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Babcock Wilcox's stock price is about 67 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Babcock, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 67

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Babcock Wilcox's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Babcock Wilcox Enterprises, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Babcock Wilcox hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises from the perspective of Babcock Wilcox response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises on the next trading day is expected to be 25.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.54.

Babcock Wilcox after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 25.18  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.

Babcock Wilcox Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Babcock price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Babcock using various technical indicators. When you analyze Babcock charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Babcock Wilcox is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Babcock Wilcox Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises on the next trading day is expected to be 25.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Babcock Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Babcock Wilcox's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Babcock Wilcox Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Babcock Wilcox  Babcock Wilcox Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Babcock Wilcox stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Babcock Wilcox stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.1568
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.058
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0023
SAESum of the absolute errors3.541
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Babcock Wilcox. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Babcock Wilcox

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Babcock Wilcox Enter. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Babcock Wilcox's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.1125.1825.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.1821.2527.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
25.0325.1225.21
Details

Babcock Wilcox After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Babcock Wilcox at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Babcock Wilcox or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Babcock Wilcox, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Babcock Wilcox Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Babcock Wilcox's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Babcock Wilcox's historical news coverage. Babcock Wilcox's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.11 and 25.25, respectively. We have considered Babcock Wilcox's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
25.18
25.18
After-hype Price
25.25
Upside
Babcock Wilcox is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Babcock Wilcox Enter is based on 3 months time horizon.

Babcock Wilcox Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Babcock Wilcox is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Babcock Wilcox backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Babcock Wilcox, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.03 
0.07
 0.00  
  0.01 
32 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 32 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
25.18
25.18
0.00 
100.00  
Notes

Babcock Wilcox Hype Timeline

Babcock Wilcox Enter is currently traded for 25.18. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Babcock is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 100.0%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Babcock Wilcox is about 24.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.17. The company last dividend was issued on the 31st of October 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 32 days.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.

Babcock Wilcox Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Babcock Wilcox's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Babcock Wilcox's future price movements. Getting to know how Babcock Wilcox's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Babcock Wilcox may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Babcock Wilcox Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Babcock Wilcox stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Babcock Wilcox could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Babcock Wilcox by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Babcock Wilcox Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Babcock Wilcox stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Babcock Wilcox shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Babcock Wilcox stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Babcock Wilcox Enterprises entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Babcock Wilcox Risk Indicators

The analysis of Babcock Wilcox's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Babcock Wilcox's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting babcock stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Babcock Wilcox

The number of cover stories for Babcock Wilcox depends on current market conditions and Babcock Wilcox's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Babcock Wilcox is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Babcock Wilcox's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Babcock Wilcox Short Properties

Babcock Wilcox's future price predictability will typically decrease when Babcock Wilcox's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Babcock Wilcox's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Babcock Wilcox's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding91.7 M
Dividends Paid18.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments23.4 M
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.
You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

Other Consideration for investing in Babcock Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Babcock Wilcox Enter check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Babcock Wilcox's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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