Brent Crude Commodity Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| BZUSD Commodity | 74.59 0.04 0.05% |
Brent |
Brent Crude Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Brent Crude Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 74.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34, mean absolute percentage error of 2.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Brent Commodity prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Brent Crude's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Brent Crude Commodity Forecast Pattern
Brent Crude Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Brent Crude's Commodity value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Brent Crude's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 72.56 and 76.66, respectively. We have considered Brent Crude's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Brent Crude commodity data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Brent Crude commodity, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4263 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0255 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3414 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0182 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 79.145 |
Predictive Modules for Brent Crude
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Brent Crude Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the commodity market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the commodity market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Brent Crude's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Brent Crude
For every potential investor in Brent, whether a beginner or expert, Brent Crude's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Brent Commodity price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Brent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Brent Crude's price trends.View Brent Crude Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Brent Crude Oil Technical and Predictive Analytics
The commodity market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Brent Crude's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Brent Crude's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Brent Crude Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Brent Crude commodity reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Brent Crude shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Brent Crude commodity market strength indicators, traders can identify Brent Crude Oil entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Brent Crude Risk Indicators
The analysis of Brent Crude's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Brent Crude's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting brent commodity prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Variance | 4.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.