Citigroup Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| C Stock | 112.60 0.00 0.00% |
Citigroup Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the value of rsi of Citigroup's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Citigroup hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Citigroup from the perspective of Citigroup response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Citigroup on the next trading day is expected to be 112.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 99.37. Citigroup after-hype prediction price | USD 112.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Citigroup |
Citigroup Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Citigroup price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Citigroup using various technical indicators. When you analyze Citigroup charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Citigroup Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Citigroup on the next trading day is expected to be 112.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66, mean absolute percentage error of 6.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 99.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Citigroup Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Citigroup's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Citigroup Stock Forecast Pattern
Citigroup Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Citigroup's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Citigroup's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 110.14 and 115.06, respectively. We have considered Citigroup's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Citigroup stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Citigroup stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1398 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2508 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6562 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0154 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 99.37 |
Predictive Modules for Citigroup
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citigroup. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Citigroup Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Citigroup at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Citigroup or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Citigroup, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Citigroup Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Citigroup is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Citigroup backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Citigroup, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 2.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
112.60 | 112.60 | 0.00 |
|
Citigroup Hype Timeline
Citigroup is currently traded for 112.60on Bolsa de Valores de Lima of Peru. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Citigroup is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.49%. %. The volatility of related hype on Citigroup is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 112.60. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out fundamental analysis of Citigroup to check your projections. To learn how to invest in Citigroup Stock, please use our How to Invest in Citigroup guide.Citigroup Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Citigroup's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Citigroup's future price movements. Getting to know how Citigroup's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Citigroup may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INRETC1 | InRetail Peru Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.03 | 0.06 | 3.21 | (1.96) | 6.79 | |
| CREDITC1 | Banco de Credito | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.50 | 0.29 | 3.39 | (1.55) | 8.02 | |
| ATCU | Alta Copper Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.57 | 0.21 | 11.11 | (4.26) | 41.67 | |
| SCCO | Southern Copper Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.58 | 0.14 | 6.30 | (4.22) | 19.57 | |
| BAC | Bank of America | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.06 | 0.08 | 2.58 | (1.44) | 10.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for Citigroup
For every potential investor in Citigroup, whether a beginner or expert, Citigroup's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Citigroup Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Citigroup. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Citigroup's price trends.Citigroup Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Citigroup stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Citigroup could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Citigroup by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Citigroup Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Citigroup stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Citigroup shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Citigroup stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Citigroup entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Citigroup Risk Indicators
The analysis of Citigroup's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Citigroup's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting citigroup stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.33 | |||
| Variance | 5.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Citigroup
The number of cover stories for Citigroup depends on current market conditions and Citigroup's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Citigroup is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Citigroup's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Citigroup Stock
When determining whether Citigroup offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Citigroup's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Citigroup Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Citigroup Stock:Check out fundamental analysis of Citigroup to check your projections. To learn how to invest in Citigroup Stock, please use our How to Invest in Citigroup guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
It's important to distinguish between Citigroup's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Citigroup should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Citigroup's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.