Citigroup Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

C Stock  MXN 1,952  61.68  3.26%   
Citigroup Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Citigroup's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Citigroup's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Citigroup, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Citigroup hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Citigroup from the perspective of Citigroup response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Citigroup on the next trading day is expected to be 2,072 with a mean absolute deviation of 79.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,840.

Citigroup after-hype prediction price

    
  MXN 1890.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citigroup to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Citigroup Stock please use our How to Invest in Citigroup guide.

Citigroup Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Citigroup price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Citigroup using various technical indicators. When you analyze Citigroup charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Citigroup price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Citigroup Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 18th of February 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Citigroup on the next trading day is expected to be 2,072 with a mean absolute deviation of 79.35, mean absolute percentage error of 9,429, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,840.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Citigroup Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Citigroup's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Citigroup Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Citigroup  Citigroup Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Citigroup Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Citigroup's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Citigroup's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,070 and 2,074, respectively. We have considered Citigroup's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,952
2,072
Expected Value
2,074
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Citigroup stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Citigroup stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.262
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation79.3466
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0395
SAESum of the absolute errors4840.1415
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Citigroup historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Citigroup

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citigroup. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,8881,8901,892
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,5291,5312,079
Details

Citigroup After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Citigroup at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Citigroup or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Citigroup, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Citigroup Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Citigroup's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Citigroup's historical news coverage. Citigroup's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,888 and 1,892, respectively. We have considered Citigroup's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1,952
1,890
After-hype Price
1,892
Upside
Citigroup is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Citigroup is based on 3 months time horizon.

Citigroup Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Citigroup is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Citigroup backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Citigroup, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.09 
1.97
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1,952
1,890
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Citigroup Hype Timeline

Citigroup is currently traded for 1,952on Mexican Exchange of Mexico. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Citigroup is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Citigroup is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,952. About 73.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.49. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Citigroup has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.72. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 133.59. The firm last dividend was issued on the 3rd of February 2023. Citigroup had 1:10 split on the 9th of May 2011. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citigroup to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Citigroup Stock please use our How to Invest in Citigroup guide.

Citigroup Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Citigroup's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Citigroup's future price movements. Getting to know how Citigroup's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Citigroup may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Citigroup

For every potential investor in Citigroup, whether a beginner or expert, Citigroup's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Citigroup Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Citigroup. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Citigroup's price trends.

Citigroup Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Citigroup stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Citigroup could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Citigroup by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Citigroup Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Citigroup stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Citigroup shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Citigroup stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Citigroup entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Citigroup Risk Indicators

The analysis of Citigroup's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Citigroup's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting citigroup stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Citigroup

The number of cover stories for Citigroup depends on current market conditions and Citigroup's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Citigroup is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Citigroup's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Citigroup Stock Analysis

When running Citigroup's price analysis, check to measure Citigroup's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Citigroup is operating at the current time. Most of Citigroup's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Citigroup's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Citigroup's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Citigroup to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.