Xtrackers California ETF Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CA ETF | USD 24.94 -0.06 -0.24% |
Triple Exponential Smoothing is applied to Xtrackers California Municipal's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The Triple Exponential Smoothing model projects Xtrackers California at 24.96 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This Triple Exponential Smoothing output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Xtrackers California at 24.96 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0019 , and sum of absolute errors of 2.73 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Xtrackers California's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Xtrackers California | Xtrackers California Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Xtrackers California's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The model places downside around 24.74 and upside around 25.18 for the next session. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Triple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Xtrackers California ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0042 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0462 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.7274 |
Other Forecasting Options for Xtrackers California
Xtrackers California's daily price returns decompose into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Xtrackers often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Xtrackers California Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Muni California Intermediate space frame Xtrackers California's pricing and running costs in context. Market cap and total value checks frame Xtrackers California's size within the competitive field. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Xtrackers California across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Xtrackers California Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Xtrackers California ETF provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Xtrackers California.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.94 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.63 |
Xtrackers California Risk Indicators
Assessing Xtrackers California's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for xtrackers etf. The level of risk embedded in Xtrackers California's feeds directly into exposure calibration.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1651 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2494 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2186 | |||
| Variance | 0.0478 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0622 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
More Resources for Xtrackers ETF Analysis
The gap between Xtrackers California's market price and NAV reflects supply-demand dynamics in the secondary market. The assessment of Xtrackers California incorporates fund costs, portfolio composition, and performance relative to its benchmark.
Xtrackers California's quoted price and NAV often reflect different short-term dynamics. Holdings turnover, expense ratio, and fund flow patterns can inform the evaluation.