Candel Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CADL Stock | USD 6.30 0.38 6.42% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Candel Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.47. Candel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Candel Therapeutics' share price is at 56 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Candel Therapeutics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Candel Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Candel Therapeutics from the perspective of Candel Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Candel Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.47. Candel Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 6.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Candel Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Candel Stock please use our How to buy in Candel Stock guide.Candel Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Candel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Candel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Candel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Candel Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Candel Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Candel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Candel Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Candel Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
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Candel Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Candel Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Candel Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.95 and 11.18, respectively. We have considered Candel Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Candel Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Candel Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3992 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1881 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0343 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.473 |
Predictive Modules for Candel Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Candel Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Candel Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Candel Therapeutics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Candel Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Candel Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Candel Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Candel Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Candel Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Candel Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Candel Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.19 and 10.41, respectively. We have considered Candel Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Candel Therapeutics is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Candel Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Candel Therapeutics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Candel Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Candel Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Candel Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 4.11 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.30 | 6.30 | 0.00 |
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Candel Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Candel Therapeutics is currently traded for 6.30. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Candel is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on Candel Therapeutics is about 3877.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.33. About 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Candel Therapeutics was currently reported as 1.46. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.56. Candel Therapeutics had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Candel Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Candel Stock please use our How to buy in Candel Stock guide.Candel Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Candel Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Candel Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Candel Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Candel Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MREO | Mereo BioPharma Group | (0.21) | 6 per month | 16.49 | 0 | 16.33 | (9.52) | 101.95 | |
| IMMP | Immutep Ltd ADR | 1.22 | 6 per month | 2.93 | 0.11 | 6.88 | (5.41) | 31.54 | |
| CAPR | Capricor Therapeutics | 0.23 | 8 per month | 4.26 | 0.12 | 11.97 | (10.26) | 386.29 | |
| PRQR | ProQR Therapeutics BV | 0.07 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 6.80 | (8.02) | 25.48 | |
| CTNM | Contineum Therapeutics Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.30 | 0.05 | 7.89 | (5.55) | 23.16 | |
| GNLX | Genelux Common | (0.11) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 7.03 | (11.87) | 54.58 | |
| ALDX | Aldeyra | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.55 | 0.01 | 6.27 | (8.84) | 42.93 | |
| KYTX | Kyverna Therapeutics Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.10 | 0.10 | 9.57 | (9.60) | 55.75 | |
| EDIT | Editas Medicine | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 7.54 | (8.18) | 22.45 | |
| CABA | Cabaletta Bio | (0.01) | 7 per month | 4.91 | 0.03 | 10.58 | (8.79) | 62.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Candel Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Candel, whether a beginner or expert, Candel Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Candel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Candel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Candel Therapeutics' price trends.Candel Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Candel Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Candel Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Candel Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Candel Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Candel Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Candel Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Candel Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Candel Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Candel Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Candel Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Candel Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting candel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.11 | |||
| Variance | 16.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.23 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Candel Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Candel Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Candel Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Candel Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Candel Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Candel Therapeutics Short Properties
Candel Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Candel Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Candel Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Candel Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Candel Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 102.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Candel Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Candel Stock please use our How to buy in Candel Stock guide.You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Candel Therapeutics. If investors know Candel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Candel Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Candel Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Candel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Candel Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Candel Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Candel Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Candel Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Candel Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Candel Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Candel Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.