Caris Life Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CAI Stock | USD 25.55 0.07 0.27% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Caris Life Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 25.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.44. Caris Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Caris Life's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Caris Life's share price is approaching 41 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Caris Life, making its price go up or down. Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.499 |
Using Caris Life hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Caris Life Sciences from the perspective of Caris Life response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Caris Life using Caris Life's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Caris using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Caris Life's stock price.
Caris Life Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Caris Life's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Caris. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Caris Life stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 28 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.4 M | Shares Short 6.2 M |
Caris Life Sciences Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Caris Life's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Caris. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Caris can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Caris Life Sciences. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Caris Life Implied Volatility | 0.87 |
Caris Life's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Caris Life Sciences stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Caris Life's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Caris Life stock will not fluctuate a lot when Caris Life's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Caris Life Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 25.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.44. Caris Life after-hype prediction price | USD 25.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caris Life to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Caris contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Caris Life Sciences will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0544% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Caris Life trading at USD 25.55, that is roughly USD 0.0139 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Caris Life's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Caris Life Sciences options at the current volatility level of 0.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Caris Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Caris Life's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Caris Life's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Caris Life stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Caris Life's open interest, investors have to compare it to Caris Life's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Caris Life is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Caris. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Caris Life Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Caris price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Caris using various technical indicators. When you analyze Caris charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Caris Life Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Caris Life Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 25.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Caris Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Caris Life's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Caris Life Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Caris Life | Caris Life Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Caris Life Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Caris Life's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Caris Life's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.03 and 29.07, respectively. We have considered Caris Life's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Caris Life stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Caris Life stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0864 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0905 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6466 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.024 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.44 |
Predictive Modules for Caris Life
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caris Life Sciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Caris Life After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Caris Life at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Caris Life or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Caris Life, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Caris Life Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Caris Life's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Caris Life's historical news coverage. Caris Life's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.04 and 29.06, respectively. We have considered Caris Life's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Caris Life is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Caris Life Sciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Caris Life Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Caris Life is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Caris Life backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Caris Life, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 3.52 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
25.55 | 25.55 | 0.00 |
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Caris Life Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Caris Life Sciences is traded for 25.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Caris is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on Caris Life is about 9777.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.54. About 48.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.9. Caris Life Sciences recorded a loss per share of 1.25. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of September 2021. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caris Life to cross-verify your projections.Caris Life Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Caris Life's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Caris Life's future price movements. Getting to know how Caris Life's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Caris Life may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JAZZ | Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC | 0.65 | 3 per month | 1.74 | 0.09 | 3.66 | (3.14) | 25.96 | |
| RNA | Avidity Biosciences | 0.14 | 11 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.24 | (0.49) | 42.94 | |
| MRNA | Moderna | 0.85 | 9 per month | 3.40 | 0.21 | 10.85 | (7.01) | 22.21 | |
| CYTK | Cytokinetics | (0.37) | 10 per month | 2.36 | 0.03 | 4.59 | (3.85) | 10.86 | |
| MDGL | Madrigal Pharmaceuticals | (3.69) | 9 per month | 2.10 | 0.04 | 7.29 | (3.26) | 16.78 | |
| HALO | Halozyme Therapeutics | 0.65 | 3 per month | 1.62 | 0 | 3.12 | (2.64) | 9.83 | |
| MRUS | Merus BV | 0.38 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 0.32 | (0.23) | 7.73 | |
| ABVX | Abivax SA American | 0.38 | 21 per month | 3.53 | 0.11 | 6.94 | (6.09) | 29.38 | |
| CORT | Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated | 0.65 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.66 | (7.08) | 58.23 | |
| RYTM | Rhythm Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.14 | (0.03) | 4.03 | (5.14) | 18.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Caris Life
For every potential investor in Caris, whether a beginner or expert, Caris Life's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Caris Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Caris. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Caris Life's price trends.Caris Life Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Caris Life stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Caris Life could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Caris Life by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Caris Life Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Caris Life stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Caris Life shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Caris Life stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Caris Life Sciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Caris Life Risk Indicators
The analysis of Caris Life's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Caris Life's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting caris stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.49 | |||
| Variance | 12.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Caris Life
The number of cover stories for Caris Life depends on current market conditions and Caris Life's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Caris Life is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Caris Life's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Caris Life Short Properties
Caris Life's future price predictability will typically decrease when Caris Life's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Caris Life Sciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Caris Life's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caris Life's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 254.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 66.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caris Life to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caris Life. If investors know Caris will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caris Life listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Caris Life Sciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caris that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caris Life's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caris Life's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caris Life's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caris Life's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caris Life's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Caris Life is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caris Life's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.