Cahayaputra Asa Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CAKK Stock  IDR 151.00  3.00  1.95%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cahayaputra Asa Keramik on the next trading day is expected to be 151.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 157.92. Cahayaputra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Cahayaputra Asa simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Cahayaputra Asa Keramik are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Cahayaputra Asa Keramik prices get older.

Cahayaputra Asa Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cahayaputra Asa Keramik on the next trading day is expected to be 151.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.63, mean absolute percentage error of 26.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 157.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cahayaputra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cahayaputra Asa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cahayaputra Asa Stock Forecast Pattern

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Cahayaputra Asa Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cahayaputra Asa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cahayaputra Asa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 148.32 and 155.63, respectively. We have considered Cahayaputra Asa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
151.00
148.32
Downside
151.98
Expected Value
155.63
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cahayaputra Asa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cahayaputra Asa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.5488
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2292
MADMean absolute deviation2.6321
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0168
SAESum of the absolute errors157.9244
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Cahayaputra Asa Keramik forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Cahayaputra Asa observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Cahayaputra Asa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cahayaputra Asa Keramik. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
150.32154.00157.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
149.94153.62157.30
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
143.57152.00160.43
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Cahayaputra Asa

For every potential investor in Cahayaputra, whether a beginner or expert, Cahayaputra Asa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cahayaputra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cahayaputra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cahayaputra Asa's price trends.

Cahayaputra Asa Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cahayaputra Asa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cahayaputra Asa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cahayaputra Asa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cahayaputra Asa Keramik Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cahayaputra Asa's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cahayaputra Asa's current price.

Cahayaputra Asa Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cahayaputra Asa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cahayaputra Asa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cahayaputra Asa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cahayaputra Asa Keramik entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cahayaputra Asa Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cahayaputra Asa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cahayaputra Asa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cahayaputra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Cahayaputra Stock

Cahayaputra Asa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cahayaputra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cahayaputra with respect to the benefits of owning Cahayaputra Asa security.