Case Group Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CASE Stock | 21.80 0.60 2.83% |
Case Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Case Group's share price is approaching 42 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Case Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Case Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Case Group AB from the perspective of Case Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Case Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 21.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.37. Case Group after-hype prediction price | SEK 21.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Case |
Case Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Case price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Case using various technical indicators. When you analyze Case charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Case Group Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Case Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 21.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57, mean absolute percentage error of 0.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Case Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Case Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Case Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Case Group | Case Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Case Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Case Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Case Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.89 and 24.48, respectively. We have considered Case Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Case Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Case Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0997 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5728 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0233 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.3691 |
Predictive Modules for Case Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Case Group AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Case Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Case Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Case Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Case Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Case Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Case Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Case Group's historical news coverage. Case Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.01 and 24.59, respectively. We have considered Case Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Case Group is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Case Group AB is based on 3 months time horizon.
Case Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Case Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Case Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Case Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.79 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.80 | 21.80 | 0.00 |
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Case Group Hype Timeline
Case Group AB is currently traded for 21.80on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.04. Case is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Case Group is about 1567.42%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.76. About 86.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Case Group to cross-verify your projections.Case Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Case Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Case Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Case Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Case Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HILB-B | Hilbert Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 9.91 | (7.92) | 25.30 | |
| NAXS | NAXS Nordic Access | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.78 | (0.04) | 2.93 | (2.59) | 12.68 | |
| BMC | BMC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.91 | (3.60) | 13.71 | |
| MANG | Mangold Fondkommission AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.11 | (2.91) | 6.86 | |
| SEAF | Seafire AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.99 | 0.13 | 6.15 | (4.68) | 21.65 | |
| INFREA | Infrea AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.97 | 0.05 | 3.53 | (3.33) | 13.26 | |
| QLIRO | Qliro AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.01 | (2.19) | 8.93 | |
| STWK | Stockwik Forvaltning AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.61 | 0.02 | 6.09 | (5.12) | 17.43 | |
| VO2 | Vo2 Cap Holding | (1.78) | 3 per month | 2.73 | 0.09 | 5.86 | (4.29) | 17.58 | |
| FIRST-B | First Venture Sweden | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.03 | (4.29) | 27.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Case Group
For every potential investor in Case, whether a beginner or expert, Case Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Case Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Case. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Case Group's price trends.Case Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Case Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Case Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Case Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Case Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Case Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Case Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Case Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Case Group AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Case Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Case Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Case Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting case stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Variance | 7.84 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Case Group
The number of cover stories for Case Group depends on current market conditions and Case Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Case Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Case Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Case Group Short Properties
Case Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Case Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Case Group AB often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Case Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Case Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 76.9 M |
Additional Tools for Case Stock Analysis
When running Case Group's price analysis, check to measure Case Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Case Group is operating at the current time. Most of Case Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Case Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Case Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Case Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.