Crescent Biopharma Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CBIO Stock | USD 12.29 0.00 0.00% |
Crescent Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Crescent Biopharma's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Crescent Biopharma's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Crescent Biopharma fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Crescent Biopharma's share price is approaching 49 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Crescent Biopharma, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 22 |
Using Crescent Biopharma hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Crescent Biopharma from the perspective of Crescent Biopharma response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Crescent Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crescent Biopharma on the next trading day is expected to be 12.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.36.Crescent Biopharma Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Crescent Biopharma's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Crescent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Crescent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Crescent Biopharma. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Crescent Biopharma's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Crescent Biopharma.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crescent Biopharma on the next trading day is expected to be 12.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.36. Crescent Biopharma after-hype prediction price | USD 12.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crescent Biopharma to cross-verify your projections. Crescent Biopharma Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Crescent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Crescent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Crescent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Crescent Biopharma Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crescent Biopharma on the next trading day is expected to be 12.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Crescent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Crescent Biopharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Crescent Biopharma Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Crescent Biopharma | Crescent Biopharma Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Crescent Biopharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Crescent Biopharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Crescent Biopharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.36 and 16.23, respectively. We have considered Crescent Biopharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Crescent Biopharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Crescent Biopharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0138 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3619 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0277 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.355 |
Predictive Modules for Crescent Biopharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Crescent Biopharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Crescent Biopharma After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Crescent Biopharma at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Crescent Biopharma or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Crescent Biopharma, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Crescent Biopharma Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Crescent Biopharma's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Crescent Biopharma's historical news coverage. Crescent Biopharma's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.35 and 16.23, respectively. We have considered Crescent Biopharma's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Crescent Biopharma is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Crescent Biopharma is based on 3 months time horizon.
Crescent Biopharma Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Crescent Biopharma is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Crescent Biopharma backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Crescent Biopharma, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 3.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.29 | 12.29 | 0.00 |
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Crescent Biopharma Hype Timeline
Crescent Biopharma is currently traded for 12.29. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Crescent is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Crescent Biopharma is about 6061.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.29. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.02. Crescent Biopharma last dividend was issued on the 13th of January 2023. The entity had 1:100 split on the 16th of June 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crescent Biopharma to cross-verify your projections.Crescent Biopharma Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Crescent Biopharma's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Crescent Biopharma's future price movements. Getting to know how Crescent Biopharma's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Crescent Biopharma may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CGEN | Compugen | 0.05 | 8 per month | 3.10 | 0.05 | 7.78 | (5.00) | 22.26 | |
| CCCC | C4 Therapeutics | (0.07) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.16 | (7.32) | 24.93 | |
| SGMO | Sangamo Therapeutics | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 7.69 | (6.98) | 21.63 | |
| IMDX | Insight Molecular Diagnostics | 0.23 | 8 per month | 4.45 | 0.04 | 9.45 | (6.67) | 22.08 | |
| ARMP | Armata Pharmaceuticals | 0.1 | 37 per month | 6.36 | 0.10 | 14.73 | (10.65) | 124.74 | |
| TNXP | Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding | 0.10 | 10 per month | 4.11 | (0) | 6.92 | (6.56) | 22.54 | |
| HIND | Vyome Holdings | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 8.42 | (7.77) | 26.76 | |
| HRTX | Heron Therapeuti | (0.06) | 10 per month | 2.83 | 0.02 | 6.60 | (4.48) | 16.52 | |
| IPHA | Innate Pharma | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.02 | (5.21) | 39.49 | |
| OABI | OmniAb Inc | 0.16 | 10 per month | 2.64 | 0.05 | 7.97 | (5.16) | 15.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Crescent Biopharma
For every potential investor in Crescent, whether a beginner or expert, Crescent Biopharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Crescent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Crescent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Crescent Biopharma's price trends.Crescent Biopharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Crescent Biopharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Crescent Biopharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Crescent Biopharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Crescent Biopharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Crescent Biopharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Crescent Biopharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Crescent Biopharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Crescent Biopharma entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.12 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.85 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.68 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.84) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.13 |
Crescent Biopharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Crescent Biopharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Crescent Biopharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting crescent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.83 | |||
| Variance | 14.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Crescent Biopharma
The number of cover stories for Crescent Biopharma depends on current market conditions and Crescent Biopharma's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Crescent Biopharma is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Crescent Biopharma's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crescent Biopharma to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Crescent Stock, please use our How to Invest in Crescent Biopharma guide.You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Crescent Biopharma. If investors know Crescent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Crescent Biopharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Crescent Biopharma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Crescent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Crescent Biopharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Crescent Biopharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Crescent Biopharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Crescent Biopharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Crescent Biopharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Crescent Biopharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Crescent Biopharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.