Control Bionics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CBL Stock | 0.07 0 1.45% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Control Bionics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.19. Control Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Control Bionics' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 0.06 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.361 |
Using Control Bionics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Control Bionics from the perspective of Control Bionics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Control Bionics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.19. Control Bionics after-hype prediction price | AUD 0.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Control |
Control Bionics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Control price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Control using various technical indicators. When you analyze Control charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Control Bionics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Control Bionics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000021, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Control Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Control Bionics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Control Bionics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Control Bionics | Control Bionics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Control Bionics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Control Bionics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Control Bionics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0007 and 9.95, respectively. We have considered Control Bionics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Control Bionics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Control Bionics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.3274 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0031 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0523 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.19 |
Predictive Modules for Control Bionics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Control Bionics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Control Bionics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Control Bionics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Control Bionics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Control Bionics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Control Bionics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Control Bionics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Control Bionics' historical news coverage. Control Bionics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 9.95, respectively. We have considered Control Bionics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Control Bionics is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Control Bionics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Control Bionics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Control Bionics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Control Bionics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Control Bionics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.63 | 9.88 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 5 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.07 | 0.07 | 2.94 |
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Control Bionics Hype Timeline
Control Bionics is currently traded for 0.07on Australian Securities Exchange of Australia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.74. Control is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.07 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 2.94%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.63%. The volatility of related hype on Control Bionics is about 2171.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.81. Control Bionics has accumulated 435.4 K in total debt. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Control Bionics to cross-verify your projections.Control Bionics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Control Bionics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Control Bionics' future price movements. Getting to know how Control Bionics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Control Bionics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IAGPF | Insurance Australia Group | 0.09 | 4 per month | 0.40 | (0.19) | 0.62 | (0.57) | 2.85 | |
| BFG | Bell Financial Group | 0.04 | 3 per month | 0.95 | 0.0009 | 2.34 | (2.24) | 9.16 | |
| OCA | Oceania Healthcare | 2.58 | 7 per month | 1.65 | 0.08 | 4.92 | (4.11) | 14.39 | |
| ONE | Oneview Healthcare Plc | 0.00 | 6 per month | 1.71 | 0.30 | 9.52 | (4.17) | 23.84 | |
| PFG | Prime Financial Group | 0.00 | 4 per month | 1.31 | (0.05) | 4.35 | (4.17) | 8.51 | |
| COF | Centuria Office REIT | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.83 | (2.54) | 7.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for Control Bionics
For every potential investor in Control, whether a beginner or expert, Control Bionics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Control Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Control. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Control Bionics' price trends.Control Bionics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Control Bionics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Control Bionics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Control Bionics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Control Bionics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Control Bionics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Control Bionics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Control Bionics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Control Bionics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Control Bionics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Control Bionics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Control Bionics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting control stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.67 | |||
| Variance | 93.46 | |||
| Downside Variance | 25.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (9.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Control Bionics
The number of cover stories for Control Bionics depends on current market conditions and Control Bionics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Control Bionics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Control Bionics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Control Bionics Short Properties
Control Bionics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Control Bionics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Control Bionics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Control Bionics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Control Bionics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 264.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 672.7 K |
Additional Tools for Control Stock Analysis
When running Control Bionics' price analysis, check to measure Control Bionics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Control Bionics is operating at the current time. Most of Control Bionics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Control Bionics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Control Bionics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Control Bionics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.