Cavotec SA Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CCC Stock | SEK 14.95 0.40 2.75% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cavotec SA on the next trading day is expected to be 15.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.72. Cavotec Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Cavotec SA's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Cavotec SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cavotec SA from the perspective of Cavotec SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cavotec SA on the next trading day is expected to be 15.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.72. Cavotec SA after-hype prediction price | SEK 14.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Cavotec |
Cavotec SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cavotec price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cavotec using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cavotec charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cavotec SA Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cavotec SA on the next trading day is expected to be 15.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cavotec Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cavotec SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cavotec SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cavotec SA | Cavotec SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cavotec SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cavotec SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cavotec SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.24 and 16.87, respectively. We have considered Cavotec SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cavotec SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cavotec SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0498 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1954 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0134 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.7213 |
Predictive Modules for Cavotec SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cavotec SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cavotec SA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cavotec SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cavotec SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cavotec SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cavotec SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cavotec SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cavotec SA's historical news coverage. Cavotec SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.14 and 16.76, respectively. We have considered Cavotec SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cavotec SA is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cavotec SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cavotec SA Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cavotec SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cavotec SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cavotec SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.95 | 14.95 | 0.00 |
|
Cavotec SA Hype Timeline
Cavotec SA is currently traded for 14.95on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Cavotec is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cavotec SA is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.95. About 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Cavotec SA was currently reported as 0.54. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.45. Cavotec SA last dividend was issued on the 5th of July 2018. The entity had 564:535 split on the 4th of December 2018. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cavotec SA to cross-verify your projections.Cavotec SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cavotec SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cavotec SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Cavotec SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cavotec SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TRAIN-B | Train Alliance Sweden | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0.05 | 2.34 | (2.27) | 10.02 | |
| EWRK | eWork Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.38 | (3.27) | 8.87 | |
| SALT-B | SaltX Technology Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 6.98 | (5.97) | 21.42 | |
| VSSAB-B | Viking Supply Ships | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.17 | (0.03) | 4.31 | (4.13) | 14.26 | |
| BYGGP | Bygg Partner i | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.13 | 0.09 | 6.47 | (4.26) | 22.80 | |
| FG | Fasadgruppen Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.47 | (4.27) | 16.38 | |
| AJA-B | Byggmstare Anders J | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.62 | (0.03) | 2.26 | (2.99) | 7.64 | |
| ELTEL | Eltel AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.52 | (0) | 2.65 | (1.95) | 11.10 | |
| SINT | SinterCast AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.96 | (1.90) | 7.70 | |
| ABSO | Absolent Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.27 | (3.04) | 8.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cavotec SA
For every potential investor in Cavotec, whether a beginner or expert, Cavotec SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cavotec Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cavotec. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cavotec SA's price trends.Cavotec SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cavotec SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cavotec SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cavotec SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cavotec SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cavotec SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cavotec SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cavotec SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cavotec SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 227.04 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.142857 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.77 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.37 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.4 |
Cavotec SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cavotec SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cavotec SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cavotec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cavotec SA
The number of cover stories for Cavotec SA depends on current market conditions and Cavotec SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cavotec SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cavotec SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Cavotec SA Short Properties
Cavotec SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cavotec SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cavotec SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cavotec SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cavotec SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 94.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.3 M |
Additional Tools for Cavotec Stock Analysis
When running Cavotec SA's price analysis, check to measure Cavotec SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cavotec SA is operating at the current time. Most of Cavotec SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cavotec SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cavotec SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cavotec SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.