China Coal Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CCOZY Stock | USD 30.00 2.50 9.09% |
China Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time The relative strength index (RSI) of China Coal's share price is above 80 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 96
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using China Coal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of China Coal Energy from the perspective of China Coal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of China Coal Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 30.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.92. China Coal after-hype prediction price | USD 30.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
China |
China Coal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine China price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for China using various technical indicators. When you analyze China charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
China Coal Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of China Coal Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 30.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Coal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
China Coal Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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China Coal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting China Coal's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Coal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.47 and 31.85, respectively. We have considered China Coal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Coal pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Coal pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4295 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1627 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0058 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.9243 |
Predictive Modules for China Coal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Coal Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.China Coal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of China Coal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in China Coal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of China Coal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
China Coal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting China Coal's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on China Coal's historical news coverage. China Coal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.82 and 31.18, respectively. We have considered China Coal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
China Coal is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of China Coal Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
China Coal Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as China Coal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading China Coal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with China Coal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.00 | 30.00 | 0.00 |
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China Coal Hype Timeline
China Coal Energy is currently traded for 30.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. China is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on China Coal is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.00. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.57. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. China Coal Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.11. The entity last dividend was issued on the 23rd of June 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Coal to cross-verify your projections.China Coal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to China Coal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict China Coal's future price movements. Getting to know how China Coal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how China Coal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YZCHF | Yanzhou Coal Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.12 | |
| YZCAY | Yanzhou Coal Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.32 | (0.03) | 4.94 | (3.89) | 13.46 | |
| PTXLF | PTT Exploration And | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 0.00 | (3.70) | 6.59 | |
| TNRSF | Tenaris SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.1 | 3.18 | (1.47) | 22.06 | |
| PEXNY | PTT Exploration Production | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.85 | (10.71) | 50.05 | |
| OMVJF | OMV Aktiengesellschaft | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 6.54 | |
| TRMLF | Tourmaline Oil Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.02 | 2.74 | (2.51) | 5.96 | |
| IPXHF | Inpex | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 25.30 | |
| NATKY | JSC National Atomic | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.25 | 0.14 | 7.37 | (5.39) | 17.29 | |
| IPXHY | Inpex Corp ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.10 | 2.75 | (2.26) | 9.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for China Coal
For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Coal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Coal's price trends.China Coal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Coal pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Coal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Coal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
China Coal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Coal pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Coal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Coal pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify China Coal Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.09 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.25 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.5 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 96.55 |
China Coal Risk Indicators
The analysis of China Coal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Coal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.429 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.79 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for China Coal
The number of cover stories for China Coal depends on current market conditions and China Coal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that China Coal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about China Coal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for China Pink Sheet Analysis
When running China Coal's price analysis, check to measure China Coal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Coal is operating at the current time. Most of China Coal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Coal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Coal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Coal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.