Codan Stock Forward View
| CDA Stock | 34.22 1.18 3.33% |
Codan Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Codan's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.317 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7982 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.9339 | Wall Street Target Price 36.0057 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.295 |
Using Codan hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Codan from the perspective of Codan response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Codan on the next trading day is expected to be 32.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.12. Codan after-hype prediction price | AUD 34.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Codan |
Codan Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Codan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Codan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Codan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Codan Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Codan on the next trading day is expected to be 32.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08, mean absolute percentage error of 1.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Codan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Codan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Codan Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Codan | Codan Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Codan Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Codan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Codan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.34 and 35.75, respectively. We have considered Codan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Codan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Codan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6886 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.084 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0337 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 66.1241 |
Predictive Modules for Codan
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Codan. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Codan After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Codan at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Codan or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Codan, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Codan Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Codan's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Codan's historical news coverage. Codan's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.17 and 37.57, respectively. We have considered Codan's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Codan is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Codan is based on 3 months time horizon.
Codan Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Codan is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Codan backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Codan, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 3.20 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
34.22 | 34.37 | 0.44 |
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Codan Hype Timeline
Codan is currently traded for 34.22on Australian Securities Exchange of Australia. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Codan is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 34.37 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.44%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Codan is about 2057.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.25. The company reported the revenue of 674.23 M. Net Income was 103.49 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 378.76 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Codan to cross-verify your projections.Codan Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Codan's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Codan's future price movements. Getting to know how Codan's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Codan may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ATM | Aneka Tambang TBK | 0.00 | 4 per month | 2.16 | 0.02 | 4.21 | (6.06) | 11.36 | |
| XYZ | Block Inc | (0.81) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.68 | (6.54) | 18.11 | |
| RIO | RIO Tinto | (3.16) | 9 per month | 1.68 | 0.20 | 2.57 | (2.65) | 10.19 | |
| BHP | BHP Group | (0.12) | 7 per month | 1.75 | 0.13 | 2.60 | (3.12) | 8.42 | |
| NEM | Newmont | 4.99 | 10 per month | 3.37 | 0.12 | 5.64 | (5.27) | 15.83 | |
| NWSLV | News Corporation | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.24 | (1.32) | 14.84 | |
| NWS | News Corporation | 0.57 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.17 | (2.57) | 13.00 | |
| WDS | Woodside Energy Group | (0.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.71 | (2.65) | 4.73 | |
| YAL | Yancoal Australia | 0.04 | 5 per month | 1.86 | 0.01 | 3.23 | (3.17) | 12.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Codan
For every potential investor in Codan, whether a beginner or expert, Codan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Codan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Codan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Codan's price trends.Codan Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Codan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Codan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Codan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Codan Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Codan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Codan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Codan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Codan entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Codan Risk Indicators
The analysis of Codan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Codan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting codan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.26 | |||
| Variance | 10.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.31 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.84 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Codan
The number of cover stories for Codan depends on current market conditions and Codan's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Codan is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Codan's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Codan Short Properties
Codan's future price predictability will typically decrease when Codan's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Codan often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Codan's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Codan's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 182.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 39.7 M |
Additional Tools for Codan Stock Analysis
When running Codan's price analysis, check to measure Codan's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Codan is operating at the current time. Most of Codan's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Codan's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Codan's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Codan to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.