Manulife Smart Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CDIV Etf | CAD 19.84 0.09 0.46% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Manulife Smart Dividend on the next trading day is expected to be 20.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.67. Manulife Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Manulife Smart's share price is below 20 suggesting that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Manulife Smart hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Manulife Smart Dividend from the perspective of Manulife Smart response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Manulife Smart Dividend on the next trading day is expected to be 20.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.67. Manulife Smart after-hype prediction price | CAD 19.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Manulife |
Manulife Smart Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Manulife price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Manulife using various technical indicators. When you analyze Manulife charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Manulife Smart Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Manulife Smart Dividend on the next trading day is expected to be 20.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Manulife Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Manulife Smart's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Manulife Smart Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Manulife Smart | Manulife Smart Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Manulife Smart Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Manulife Smart's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Manulife Smart's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.39 and 21.22, respectively. We have considered Manulife Smart's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Manulife Smart etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Manulife Smart etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9576 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1721 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0089 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.6728 |
Predictive Modules for Manulife Smart
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manulife Smart Dividend. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Manulife Smart After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Manulife Smart at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Manulife Smart or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Manulife Smart, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Manulife Smart Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Manulife Smart's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Manulife Smart's historical news coverage. Manulife Smart's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.93 and 20.77, respectively. We have considered Manulife Smart's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Manulife Smart is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Manulife Smart Dividend is based on 3 months time horizon.
Manulife Smart Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Manulife Smart is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Manulife Smart backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Manulife Smart, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 0.92 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.84 | 19.85 | 0.05 |
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Manulife Smart Hype Timeline
Manulife Smart Dividend is currently traded for 19.84on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Manulife is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 19.85 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Manulife Smart is about 335.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.86. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Manulife Smart to cross-verify your projections.Manulife Smart Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Manulife Smart's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Manulife Smart's future price movements. Getting to know how Manulife Smart's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Manulife Smart may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MUMC | Manulife Multifactor Mid | (0.13) | 5 per month | 1.17 | 0.01 | 1.80 | (1.86) | 8.53 | |
| IDEF-B | Manulife Smart International | 0.99 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 7.38 | |
| MCOR | Manulife Core Plus | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TERM | Manulife Smart Short Term | 18.56 | 1 per month | 0.05 | (0.71) | 0.21 | (0.20) | 0.72 | |
| CBND | Manulife Smart Corporate | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.15 | (0.30) | 0.33 | (0.33) | 1.63 | |
| MINT | Manulife Multifactor Developed | (31.76) | 3 per month | 0.32 | 0.01 | 0.93 | (0.87) | 2.83 | |
| MINT-B | Manulife Multifactor Developed | 0.82 | 7 per month | 1.55 | (0.01) | 2.48 | (2.36) | 6.07 | |
| UDIV | Manulife Smart Dividend | 13.75 | 2 per month | 0.74 | (0.05) | 1.25 | (1.24) | 3.01 | |
| MUMC-B | Manulife Multifactor Mid | 0.22 | 10 per month | 0.92 | 0 | 2.09 | (1.38) | 7.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Manulife Smart
For every potential investor in Manulife, whether a beginner or expert, Manulife Smart's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Manulife Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Manulife. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Manulife Smart's price trends.Manulife Smart Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Manulife Smart etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Manulife Smart could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Manulife Smart by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Manulife Smart Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Manulife Smart etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Manulife Smart shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Manulife Smart etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Manulife Smart Dividend entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 523.54 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5625 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.87 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.09 |
Manulife Smart Risk Indicators
The analysis of Manulife Smart's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Manulife Smart's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting manulife etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5391 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.893 | |||
| Variance | 0.7975 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Manulife Smart
The number of cover stories for Manulife Smart depends on current market conditions and Manulife Smart's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Manulife Smart is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Manulife Smart's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Manulife Etf
Manulife Smart financial ratios help investors to determine whether Manulife Etf is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Manulife with respect to the benefits of owning Manulife Smart security.