Cidara Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CDTX Stock | USD 221.38 0.06 0.03% |
Cidara Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The RSI of Cidara Therapeutics' share price is above 70 at this time suggesting that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Cidara, making its price go up or down. Momentum 76
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.49) | EPS Estimate Current Year (8.68) | EPS Estimate Next Year (7.21) | Wall Street Target Price 221.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.33) |
Using Cidara Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cidara Therapeutics from the perspective of Cidara Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cidara Therapeutics using Cidara Therapeutics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cidara using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cidara Therapeutics' stock price.
Cidara Therapeutics Short Interest
An investor who is long Cidara Therapeutics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Cidara Therapeutics and may potentially protect profits, hedge Cidara Therapeutics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 89.0494 | Short Percent 0.0643 | Short Ratio 1.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.1 M | 50 Day MA 196.9386 |
Cidara Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cidara Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 247.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 816.45.Cidara Therapeutics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cidara Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cidara. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cidara can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cidara Therapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Cidara Therapeutics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Cidara Therapeutics.
Cidara Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 0.86 |
Cidara Therapeutics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cidara Therapeutics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cidara Therapeutics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cidara Therapeutics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cidara Therapeutics' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cidara Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 247.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 816.45. Cidara Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 221.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in producer price index. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cidara contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cidara Therapeutics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0538% per day over the life of the 2026-02-20 option contract. With Cidara Therapeutics trading at USD 221.38, that is roughly USD 0.12 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cidara Therapeutics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cidara Therapeutics options at the current volatility level of 0.86%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Cidara Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cidara Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Cidara Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Cidara Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cidara Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Cidara Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cidara Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cidara. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Cidara Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cidara price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cidara using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cidara charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Cidara Therapeutics' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2013-12-31 | Previous Quarter 510.6 M | Current Value 293.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 83.1 M |
Cidara Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cidara Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 247.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.38, mean absolute percentage error of 345.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 816.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cidara Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cidara Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cidara Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cidara Therapeutics | Cidara Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cidara Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cidara Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.9544 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 13.3845 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.091 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 816.4523 |
Predictive Modules for Cidara Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cidara Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cidara Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cidara Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cidara Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cidara Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cidara Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cidara Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cidara Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cidara Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Cidara Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 206.69 and 236.95, respectively. We have considered Cidara Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cidara Therapeutics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cidara Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cidara Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cidara Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cidara Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cidara Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.21 | 15.13 | 0.44 | 0.02 | 6 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
221.38 | 221.82 | 0.20 |
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Cidara Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Cidara Therapeutics is currently traded for 221.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.44, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Cidara is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 221.82 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 2.21%. The volatility of related hype on Cidara Therapeutics is about 216142.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 221.40. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.27 M. Net Loss for the year was (169.83 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (131.82 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in producer price index.Cidara Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cidara Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cidara Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Cidara Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cidara Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MLYS | Mineralys Therapeutics Common | (1.40) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.87 | (6.28) | 24.81 | |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp | 0.35 | 10 per month | 3.86 | 0.02 | 9.94 | (5.19) | 29.55 | |
| SRRK | Scholar Rock Holding | 0.43 | 8 per month | 2.40 | 0.17 | 5.92 | (4.21) | 30.20 | |
| IDYA | Ideaya Biosciences | 0.03 | 10 per month | 2.08 | 0.06 | 4.86 | (3.78) | 15.68 | |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 4.56 | (4.21) | 10.32 | |
| BEAM | Beam Therapeutics | (0.52) | 11 per month | 3.67 | 0.02 | 8.12 | (6.30) | 31.78 | |
| CPRX | Catalyst Pharmaceuticals | (0.22) | 7 per month | 1.58 | 0.06 | 3.00 | (3.08) | 10.89 | |
| LEGN | Legend Biotech Corp | 0.74 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.83 | (6.84) | 19.65 | |
| IRON | Disc Medicine | (0.39) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.33 | (4.35) | 16.19 | |
| AGIO | Agios Pharm | 1.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.99 | (3.94) | 56.88 |
Cidara Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cidara Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cidara Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cidara Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cidara Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cidara Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cidara Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cidara Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cidara Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cidara Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cidara Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cidara Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cidara stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 13.28 | |||
| Variance | 176.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.8 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cidara Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Cidara Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Cidara Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cidara Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cidara Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cidara Therapeutics Short Properties
Cidara Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Cidara Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cidara Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cidara Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cidara Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 189.8 M |
Additional Tools for Cidara Stock Analysis
When running Cidara Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Cidara Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cidara Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Cidara Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cidara Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cidara Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cidara Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.