Cadiz Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CDZI Stock | USD 5.64 0.05 0.88% |
Cadiz Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Cadiz's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 1st of February 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Cadiz's share price is approaching 47 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Cadiz, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.54 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.24 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.25) | Wall Street Target Price 12.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.09) |
Using Cadiz hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cadiz Inc from the perspective of Cadiz response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cadiz using Cadiz's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cadiz using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cadiz's stock price.
Cadiz Implied Volatility | 1.19 |
Cadiz's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cadiz Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cadiz's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cadiz stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cadiz's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cadiz Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.16. Cadiz after-hype prediction price | USD 5.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cadiz to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Cadiz Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cadiz's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Cadiz's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Cadiz stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cadiz's open interest, investors have to compare it to Cadiz's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cadiz is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cadiz. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Cadiz Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cadiz price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cadiz using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cadiz charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cadiz Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cadiz Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cadiz Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cadiz's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cadiz Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cadiz | Cadiz Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Cadiz Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cadiz's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cadiz's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.46 and 9.82, respectively. We have considered Cadiz's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cadiz stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cadiz stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4368 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.009 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.186 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0322 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.16 |
Predictive Modules for Cadiz
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cadiz Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cadiz After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cadiz at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cadiz or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cadiz, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cadiz Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cadiz's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cadiz's historical news coverage. Cadiz's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.46 and 9.82, respectively. We have considered Cadiz's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cadiz is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cadiz Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cadiz Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cadiz is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cadiz backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cadiz, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 4.18 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.64 | 5.64 | 0.00 |
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Cadiz Hype Timeline
Cadiz Inc is currently traded for 5.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Cadiz is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cadiz is about 2714.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.67. About 33.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.49. Cadiz Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:25 split on the 18th of December 2003. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cadiz to cross-verify your projections.Cadiz Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cadiz's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cadiz's future price movements. Getting to know how Cadiz's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cadiz may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YORW | The York Water | (0.02) | 7 per month | 1.43 | 0.01 | 2.22 | (2.21) | 7.08 | |
| ARTNA | Artesian Resources | 1.37 | 8 per month | 1.46 | (0.02) | 1.82 | (2.22) | 7.00 | |
| GNE | Genie Energy | 0.27 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.47 | (3.28) | 8.20 | |
| CWCO | Consolidated Water Co | (0.01) | 8 per month | 1.70 | 0.05 | 2.17 | (2.82) | 11.83 | |
| NFE | New Fortress Energy | 0.04 | 7 per month | 6.37 | (0.0003) | 14.41 | (10.19) | 45.05 | |
| GWRS | Global Water Resources | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.21 | (3.82) | 9.15 | |
| PCYO | Pure Cycle | (0.33) | 8 per month | 1.32 | 0.03 | 3.36 | (2.18) | 7.99 | |
| NRGV | Energy Vault Holdings | 0.05 | 1 per month | 5.40 | 0.11 | 13.46 | (9.23) | 40.66 | |
| GPJA | Georgia Power Co | 0.19 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 0.85 | (0.88) | 1.82 | |
| NXXT | NextNRG | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 14.94 | (12.03) | 50.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cadiz
For every potential investor in Cadiz, whether a beginner or expert, Cadiz's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cadiz Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cadiz. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cadiz's price trends.Cadiz Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cadiz stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cadiz could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cadiz by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cadiz Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cadiz stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cadiz shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cadiz stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cadiz Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cadiz Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cadiz's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cadiz's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cadiz stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.16 | |||
| Variance | 17.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cadiz
The number of cover stories for Cadiz depends on current market conditions and Cadiz's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cadiz is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cadiz's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cadiz Short Properties
Cadiz's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cadiz's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cadiz Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cadiz's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cadiz's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 68.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cadiz to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is there potential for Water Utilities market expansion? Will Cadiz introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cadiz. Projected growth potential of Cadiz fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Cadiz listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.49) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.287 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Cadiz Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cadiz that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cadiz's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cadiz's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Cadiz's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cadiz's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Cadiz's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Cadiz should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Cadiz's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.