Sprott Physical Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CEF Etf | USD 58.85 1.81 3.17% |
Sprott Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sprott Physical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Sprott Physical's share price is above 70 as of 26th of January 2026 suggesting that the etf is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Sprott, making its price go up or down. Momentum 77
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Sprott Physical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sprott Physical Gold from the perspective of Sprott Physical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sprott Physical Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 61.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.74. Sprott Physical after-hype prediction price | USD 52.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sprott Physical to cross-verify your projections. Sprott Physical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sprott price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sprott using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sprott charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sprott Physical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sprott Physical Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 61.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sprott Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sprott Physical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sprott Physical Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sprott Physical | Sprott Physical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Sprott Physical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sprott Physical's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sprott Physical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.31 and 63.16, respectively. We have considered Sprott Physical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sprott Physical etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sprott Physical etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7294 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6678 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0151 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.7369 |
Predictive Modules for Sprott Physical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sprott Physical Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sprott Physical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sprott Physical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sprott Physical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sprott Physical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Sprott Physical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sprott Physical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sprott Physical's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sprott Physical's historical news coverage. Sprott Physical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 50.45 and 62.74, respectively. We have considered Sprott Physical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sprott Physical is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sprott Physical Gold is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sprott Physical Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Sprott Physical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sprott Physical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sprott Physical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.75 | 1.93 | 0.14 | 1.16 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
58.85 | 52.38 | 8.17 |
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Sprott Physical Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Sprott Physical Gold is traded for 58.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.16. Sprott is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 52.38. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -8.17%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.75%. The volatility of related hype on Sprott Physical is about 124.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 60.01. About 24.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.96. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Sprott Physical Gold recorded a loss per share of 1.25. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of October 2017. The firm had 3:1 split on the August 1, 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sprott Physical to cross-verify your projections.Sprott Physical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sprott Physical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sprott Physical's future price movements. Getting to know how Sprott Physical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sprott Physical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSLV | Sprott Physical Silver | 0.21 | 5 per month | 2.70 | 0.28 | 6.13 | (4.37) | 15.48 | |
| DHLYX | Diamond Hill Large | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.38 | 0.11 | 1.69 | (1.29) | 7.94 | |
| OAKLX | Oakmark Select Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.59 | 0.06 | 1.70 | (1.03) | 3.88 | |
| OTCNX | Oppenheimer Cap Apprec | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | 0.06 | 1.81 | (2.36) | 20.12 | |
| PNAIX | T Rowe Price | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.75 | 0.05 | 1.49 | (1.41) | 11.64 | |
| CPXIX | Cohen Steers Prfrd | 34.06 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.50) | 0.16 | (0.16) | 0.56 | |
| PAWAX | T Rowe Price | 0.82 | 2 per month | 0.72 | 0.05 | 1.52 | (1.42) | 12.17 | |
| SWSSX | Schwab Small Cap Index | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.07 | 0.03 | 1.92 | (1.85) | 4.36 | |
| CSJZX | Cohen Steers Realty | (19.68) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.00 | (1.57) | 3.76 | |
| FTASX | Fidelity Asset Manager | 0.09 | 1 per month | 0.52 | (0.02) | 0.88 | (0.97) | 2.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sprott Physical
For every potential investor in Sprott, whether a beginner or expert, Sprott Physical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sprott Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sprott. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sprott Physical's price trends.Sprott Physical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sprott Physical etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sprott Physical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sprott Physical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sprott Physical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sprott Physical etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sprott Physical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sprott Physical etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Sprott Physical Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sprott Physical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sprott Physical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sprott Physical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sprott etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Variance | 4.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.81 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sprott Physical
The number of cover stories for Sprott Physical depends on current market conditions and Sprott Physical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sprott Physical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sprott Physical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sprott Physical to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
The market value of Sprott Physical Gold is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sprott that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sprott Physical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sprott Physical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sprott Physical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sprott Physical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sprott Physical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sprott Physical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sprott Physical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.