Celcuity LLC Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CELC Stock | USD 111.34 1.92 1.75% |
Celcuity Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Celcuity LLC stock prices and determine the direction of Celcuity LLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Celcuity LLC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The RSI of Celcuity LLC's share price is at 59 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Celcuity LLC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.67) | EPS Estimate Next Year (4.52) | Wall Street Target Price 110.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.96) |
Using Celcuity LLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Celcuity LLC from the perspective of Celcuity LLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Celcuity LLC using Celcuity LLC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Celcuity using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Celcuity LLC's stock price.
Celcuity LLC Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Celcuity LLC's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Celcuity. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Celcuity LLC stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 52.8743 | Short Percent 0.2194 | Short Ratio 12.05 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.9 M | 50 Day MA 103.5901 |
Celcuity Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Celcuity LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 111.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 134.61.Celcuity LLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Celcuity LLC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Celcuity. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Celcuity can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Celcuity LLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Celcuity LLC's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Celcuity LLC.
Celcuity LLC Implied Volatility | 0.85 |
Celcuity LLC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Celcuity LLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Celcuity LLC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Celcuity LLC stock will not fluctuate a lot when Celcuity LLC's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Celcuity LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 111.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 134.61. Celcuity LLC after-hype prediction price | USD 109.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Celcuity LLC to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Celcuity contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Celcuity LLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0531% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Celcuity LLC trading at USD 111.34, that is roughly USD 0.0591 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Celcuity LLC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Celcuity LLC options at the current volatility level of 0.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Celcuity Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Celcuity LLC's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Celcuity LLC's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Celcuity LLC stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Celcuity LLC's open interest, investors have to compare it to Celcuity LLC's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Celcuity LLC is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Celcuity. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Celcuity LLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Celcuity price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Celcuity using various technical indicators. When you analyze Celcuity charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Celcuity LLC Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Celcuity LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 111.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.24, mean absolute percentage error of 9.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 134.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Celcuity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Celcuity LLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Celcuity LLC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Celcuity LLC | Celcuity LLC Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Celcuity LLC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Celcuity LLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Celcuity LLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 108.36 and 114.26, respectively. We have considered Celcuity LLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Celcuity LLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Celcuity LLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4802 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.7186 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2436 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0221 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 134.613 |
Predictive Modules for Celcuity LLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Celcuity LLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Celcuity LLC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Celcuity LLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Celcuity LLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Celcuity LLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Celcuity LLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Celcuity LLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Celcuity LLC's historical news coverage. Celcuity LLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 106.65 and 112.55, respectively. We have considered Celcuity LLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Celcuity LLC is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Celcuity LLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Celcuity LLC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Celcuity LLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Celcuity LLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Celcuity LLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.73 | 2.95 | 0.18 | 0.56 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
111.34 | 109.60 | 0.16 |
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Celcuity LLC Hype Timeline
Celcuity LLC is currently traded for 111.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.56. Celcuity is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 109.6 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.73%. The volatility of related hype on Celcuity LLC is about 383.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 111.90. Net Loss for the year was (111.78 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Celcuity LLC to cross-verify your projections.Celcuity LLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Celcuity LLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Celcuity LLC's future price movements. Getting to know how Celcuity LLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Celcuity LLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CGON | CG Oncology Common | 0.33 | 9 per month | 2.59 | 0.06 | 5.15 | (4.40) | 33.66 | |
| AAPG | Ascentage Pharma Group | (2.39) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.25 | (6.36) | 16.72 | |
| CNTA | Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC | (0.05) | 9 per month | 2.67 | 0.01 | 4.97 | (4.08) | 26.54 | |
| APGE | Apogee Therapeutics Common | 1.96 | 8 per month | 2.68 | 0.08 | 4.52 | (3.96) | 23.21 | |
| XENE | Xenon Pharmaceuticals | (1.14) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.78 | (2.71) | 10.56 | |
| RARE | Ultragenyx | (0.37) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.73 | (4.09) | 51.23 | |
| TVTX | Travere Therapeutics | 6.10 | 9 per month | 3.49 | 0.03 | 5.77 | (5.47) | 33.22 | |
| LEGN | Legend Biotech Corp | 0.49 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 3.83 | (6.84) | 19.65 | |
| IRON | Disc Medicine | 3.05 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.33 | (4.35) | 14.87 | |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab | (0.28) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 4.56 | (4.03) | 10.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Celcuity LLC
For every potential investor in Celcuity, whether a beginner or expert, Celcuity LLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Celcuity Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Celcuity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Celcuity LLC's price trends.Celcuity LLC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Celcuity LLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Celcuity LLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Celcuity LLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Celcuity LLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Celcuity LLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Celcuity LLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Celcuity LLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Celcuity LLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 46421.87 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2418 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 108.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 109.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 3.31 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.92 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 59.65 |
Celcuity LLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of Celcuity LLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Celcuity LLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting celcuity stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.09 | |||
| Variance | 9.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Celcuity LLC
The number of cover stories for Celcuity LLC depends on current market conditions and Celcuity LLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Celcuity LLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Celcuity LLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Celcuity LLC Short Properties
Celcuity LLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when Celcuity LLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Celcuity LLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Celcuity LLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Celcuity LLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 235.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Celcuity LLC to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Celcuity Stock refer to our How to Trade Celcuity Stock guide.You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Celcuity diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Celcuity LLC. Projected growth potential of Celcuity fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Celcuity LLC data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Celcuity LLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Celcuity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Celcuity LLC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Celcuity LLC's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Celcuity LLC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Celcuity LLC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Celcuity LLC's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Celcuity LLC should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Celcuity LLC's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.