Preferred Commerce Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CELV Stock | USD 0.09 0.01 15.00% |
Preferred Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Preferred Commerce's share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Preferred Commerce hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Preferred Commerce from the perspective of Preferred Commerce response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Preferred Commerce on the next trading day is expected to be 0.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.84. Preferred Commerce after-hype prediction price | USD 0.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Preferred |
Preferred Commerce Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Preferred price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Preferred using various technical indicators. When you analyze Preferred charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Preferred Commerce Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Preferred Commerce on the next trading day is expected to be 0.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Preferred Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Preferred Commerce's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Preferred Commerce Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Preferred Commerce | Preferred Commerce Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Preferred Commerce Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Preferred Commerce's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Preferred Commerce's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0008 and 19.44, respectively. We have considered Preferred Commerce's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Preferred Commerce pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Preferred Commerce pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.529 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0019 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.014 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1245 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.8414 |
Predictive Modules for Preferred Commerce
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Preferred Commerce. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Preferred Commerce After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Preferred Commerce at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Preferred Commerce or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Preferred Commerce, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Preferred Commerce Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Preferred Commerce's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Preferred Commerce's historical news coverage. Preferred Commerce's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 19.44, respectively. We have considered Preferred Commerce's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Preferred Commerce is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Preferred Commerce is based on 3 months time horizon.
Preferred Commerce Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Preferred Commerce is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Preferred Commerce backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Preferred Commerce, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.76 | 19.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.09 | 0.09 | 5.88 |
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Preferred Commerce Hype Timeline
Preferred Commerce is currently traded for 0.09. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Preferred is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.09 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price increase on the next news is estimated to be 5.88%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.76%. The volatility of related hype on Preferred Commerce is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.09. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Preferred Commerce to cross-verify your projections.Preferred Commerce Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Preferred Commerce's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Preferred Commerce's future price movements. Getting to know how Preferred Commerce's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Preferred Commerce may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ELAMF | Elamex SA de | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.80 | |
| DTEAF | DAVIDsTEA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.36 | (4.62) | 20.64 | |
| CTUNF | Clean Seas Seafood | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BFNH | BioForce Nanosciences Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.04 | (12.50) | 26.54 | |
| CATWF | China Tontine Wines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BRBMF | Big Rock Brewery | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.50 | |
| CFOO | China Foods Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| JSDA | Jones Soda Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.75 | 0.12 | 21.43 | (10.26) | 56.54 | |
| OMHI | Om Holdings International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | |
| BRCNF | Burcon NutraScience Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.09 | (6.76) | 17.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for Preferred Commerce
For every potential investor in Preferred, whether a beginner or expert, Preferred Commerce's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Preferred Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Preferred. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Preferred Commerce's price trends.Preferred Commerce Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Preferred Commerce pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Preferred Commerce could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Preferred Commerce by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Preferred Commerce Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Preferred Commerce pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Preferred Commerce shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Preferred Commerce pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Preferred Commerce entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.85 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.085 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.085 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) |
Preferred Commerce Risk Indicators
The analysis of Preferred Commerce's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Preferred Commerce's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting preferred pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 12.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 13.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 18.89 | |||
| Variance | 356.68 | |||
| Downside Variance | 285.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 170.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (20.99) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Preferred Commerce
The number of cover stories for Preferred Commerce depends on current market conditions and Preferred Commerce's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Preferred Commerce is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Preferred Commerce's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Preferred Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Preferred Commerce's price analysis, check to measure Preferred Commerce's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Preferred Commerce is operating at the current time. Most of Preferred Commerce's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Preferred Commerce's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Preferred Commerce's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Preferred Commerce to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.