Centratama Telekomunikasi Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

CENT Stock  IDR 47.00  1.00  2.17%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Centratama Telekomunikasi Ind on the next trading day is expected to be 44.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.12. Centratama Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Centratama Telekomunikasi polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Centratama Telekomunikasi Ind as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Centratama Telekomunikasi Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Centratama Telekomunikasi Ind on the next trading day is expected to be 44.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.30, mean absolute percentage error of 10.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Centratama Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Centratama Telekomunikasi's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Centratama Telekomunikasi Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Centratama TelekomunikasiCentratama Telekomunikasi Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Centratama Telekomunikasi Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Centratama Telekomunikasi's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Centratama Telekomunikasi's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.63 and 48.06, respectively. We have considered Centratama Telekomunikasi's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
47.00
44.35
Expected Value
48.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Centratama Telekomunikasi stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Centratama Telekomunikasi stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.5049
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.297
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0439
SAESum of the absolute errors140.1196
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Centratama Telekomunikasi historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Centratama Telekomunikasi

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Centratama Telekomunikasi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
43.2947.0050.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
38.7142.4251.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
42.8946.6050.31
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Centratama Telekomunikasi

For every potential investor in Centratama, whether a beginner or expert, Centratama Telekomunikasi's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Centratama Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Centratama. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Centratama Telekomunikasi's price trends.

Centratama Telekomunikasi Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Centratama Telekomunikasi stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Centratama Telekomunikasi could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Centratama Telekomunikasi by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Centratama Telekomunikasi Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Centratama Telekomunikasi's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Centratama Telekomunikasi's current price.

Centratama Telekomunikasi Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Centratama Telekomunikasi stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Centratama Telekomunikasi shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Centratama Telekomunikasi stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Centratama Telekomunikasi Ind entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Centratama Telekomunikasi Risk Indicators

The analysis of Centratama Telekomunikasi's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Centratama Telekomunikasi's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting centratama stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect

Other Information on Investing in Centratama Stock

Centratama Telekomunikasi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Centratama Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Centratama with respect to the benefits of owning Centratama Telekomunikasi security.