CellaVision Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CEVI Stock | SEK 147.40 2.60 1.73% |
CellaVision Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of CellaVision's share price is approaching 39 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CellaVision, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CellaVision hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CellaVision AB from the perspective of CellaVision response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CellaVision AB on the next trading day is expected to be 147.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 156.14. CellaVision after-hype prediction price | SEK 150.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CellaVision |
CellaVision Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CellaVision price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CellaVision using various technical indicators. When you analyze CellaVision charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CellaVision Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CellaVision AB on the next trading day is expected to be 147.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.60, mean absolute percentage error of 13.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 156.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CellaVision Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CellaVision's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CellaVision Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CellaVision | CellaVision Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CellaVision Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CellaVision's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CellaVision's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 145.67 and 150.24, respectively. We have considered CellaVision's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CellaVision stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CellaVision stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.8393 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.7016 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6023 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 156.1387 |
Predictive Modules for CellaVision
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CellaVision AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CellaVision After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CellaVision at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CellaVision or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CellaVision, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CellaVision Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CellaVision's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CellaVision's historical news coverage. CellaVision's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 147.72 and 152.28, respectively. We have considered CellaVision's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CellaVision is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CellaVision AB is based on 3 months time horizon.
CellaVision Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CellaVision is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CellaVision backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CellaVision, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 2.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
147.40 | 150.00 | 0.00 |
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CellaVision Hype Timeline
CellaVision AB is currently traded for 147.40on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. CellaVision is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.3%. %. The volatility of related hype on CellaVision is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 147.40. About 38.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.27. CellaVision AB last dividend was issued on the 12th of May 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CellaVision to cross-verify your projections.CellaVision Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CellaVision's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CellaVision's future price movements. Getting to know how CellaVision's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CellaVision may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XVIVO | Xvivo Perfusion AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.99 | 0.14 | 6.61 | (3.61) | 13.69 | |
| SUS | Surgical Science Sweden | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.89 | (4.85) | 63.54 | |
| IMP-A-SDB | Implantica AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.41 | (0.01) | 4.11 | (4.30) | 15.31 | |
| STIL | Stille AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.81 | (4.66) | 9.59 | |
| SECARE | Swedencare publ AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.03 | (3.60) | 10.86 | |
| BICO | BICO Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.58 | (5.29) | 20.34 | |
| FLERIE | Flerie | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.20 | (2.75) | 7.37 | |
| HNSA | Hansa Biopharma AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.79 | 0.08 | 5.84 | (4.53) | 27.53 | |
| CRAD-B | C Rad AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.52 | (3.10) | 10.54 | |
| OSSD | OssDsign AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.23 | (5.40) | 14.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for CellaVision
For every potential investor in CellaVision, whether a beginner or expert, CellaVision's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CellaVision Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CellaVision. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CellaVision's price trends.CellaVision Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CellaVision stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CellaVision could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CellaVision by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CellaVision Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CellaVision stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CellaVision shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CellaVision stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CellaVision AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 515.5 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.59) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 148.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 148.33 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 2.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.70) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.60) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.73 |
CellaVision Risk Indicators
The analysis of CellaVision's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CellaVision's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cellavision stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Variance | 5.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CellaVision
The number of cover stories for CellaVision depends on current market conditions and CellaVision's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CellaVision is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CellaVision's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CellaVision Short Properties
CellaVision's future price predictability will typically decrease when CellaVision's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CellaVision AB often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CellaVision's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CellaVision's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 130.3 M |
Additional Tools for CellaVision Stock Analysis
When running CellaVision's price analysis, check to measure CellaVision's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CellaVision is operating at the current time. Most of CellaVision's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CellaVision's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CellaVision's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CellaVision to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.