Cez AS Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

CEZ Stock   1,337  3.00  0.22%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Cez AS on the next trading day is expected to be 1,320 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,102. Cez Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Cez AS's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Cez AS's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Cez AS and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Cez AS's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Cez AS, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Cez AS hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cez AS from the perspective of Cez AS response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Cez AS on the next trading day is expected to be 1,320 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,102.

Cez AS after-hype prediction price

    
  CZK 1337.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cez AS to cross-verify your projections.

Cez AS Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Cez price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cez using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cez charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Cez AS price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Cez AS Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Cez AS on the next trading day is expected to be 1,320 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.06, mean absolute percentage error of 464.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,102.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cez Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cez AS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cez AS Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Cez ASCez AS Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Cez AS Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cez AS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cez AS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,319 and 1,320, respectively. We have considered Cez AS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,337
1,320
Expected Value
1,320
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cez AS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cez AS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.2513
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation18.0644
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0138
SAESum of the absolute errors1101.9274
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Cez AS historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Cez AS

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cez AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,3361,3371,338
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,3161,3161,471
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,2601,3211,381
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Cez AS

For every potential investor in Cez, whether a beginner or expert, Cez AS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cez Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cez. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cez AS's price trends.

Cez AS Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cez AS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cez AS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cez AS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cez AS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cez AS's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cez AS's current price.

Cez AS Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cez AS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cez AS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cez AS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cez AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cez AS Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cez AS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cez AS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cez stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Cez AS

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cez AS position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cez AS will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Cez Stock

  0.58BEZVA Bezvavlasy asPairCorr
  0.34KLIKY MT 1997 ASPairCorr
  0.33KOFOL Kofola CeskoSlovenskoPairCorr
  0.32FIXED FIXEDzone asPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cez AS could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cez AS when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cez AS - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cez AS to buy it.
The correlation of Cez AS is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cez AS moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cez AS moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cez AS can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Cez Stock Analysis

When running Cez AS's price analysis, check to measure Cez AS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cez AS is operating at the current time. Most of Cez AS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cez AS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cez AS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cez AS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.