Calfrac Well Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CFW Stock | CAD 5.01 0.16 3.09% |
Calfrac Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Calfrac Well's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Calfrac Well's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Calfrac Well fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Calfrac Well's share price is above 70 as of today suggesting that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Calfrac, making its price go up or down. Momentum 73
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.36) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.09) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.26 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.27 | Wall Street Target Price 5.25 |
Using Calfrac Well hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Calfrac Well Services from the perspective of Calfrac Well response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calfrac Well Services on the next trading day is expected to be 5.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.75. Calfrac Well after-hype prediction price | CAD 5.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Calfrac |
Calfrac Well Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Calfrac price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Calfrac using various technical indicators. When you analyze Calfrac charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Calfrac Well Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calfrac Well Services on the next trading day is expected to be 5.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Calfrac Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Calfrac Well's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Calfrac Well Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Calfrac Well | Calfrac Well Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Calfrac Well Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Calfrac Well's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Calfrac Well's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.90 and 8.22, respectively. We have considered Calfrac Well's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Calfrac Well stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Calfrac Well stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0185 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0792 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.75 |
Predictive Modules for Calfrac Well
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Calfrac Well Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Calfrac Well After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Calfrac Well at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Calfrac Well or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Calfrac Well, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Calfrac Well Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Calfrac Well's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Calfrac Well's historical news coverage. Calfrac Well's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.83 and 8.19, respectively. We have considered Calfrac Well's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Calfrac Well is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Calfrac Well Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
Calfrac Well Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Calfrac Well is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Calfrac Well backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Calfrac Well, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.85 | 3.16 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 2 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.01 | 5.01 | 0.00 |
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Calfrac Well Hype Timeline
Calfrac Well Services is currently traded for 5.01on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Calfrac is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.85%. %. The volatility of related hype on Calfrac Well is about 12365.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.99. About 51.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.77. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Calfrac Well Services has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.5. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of December 2015. The firm had 1:50 split on the 29th of December 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Calfrac Well to cross-verify your projections.Calfrac Well Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Calfrac Well's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Calfrac Well's future price movements. Getting to know how Calfrac Well's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Calfrac Well may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JOY | Journey Energy | (0.05) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.49 | (3.41) | 16.75 | |
| GASX | Ngx Energy International | (0.08) | 1 per month | 3.42 | 0 | 7.06 | (5.88) | 24.73 | |
| PNE | Pine Cliff Energy | (0.01) | 3 per month | 2.50 | 0.01 | 6.25 | (4.71) | 14.13 | |
| PRQ | Petrus Resources | (0.01) | 1 per month | 1.75 | 0.05 | 3.76 | (3.11) | 10.86 | |
| RBY | Rubellite Energy | (0.01) | 2 per month | 1.70 | 0.07 | 2.99 | (3.17) | 12.90 | |
| ALV | Alvopetro Energy | (0.24) | 8 per month | 1.35 | 0.08 | 3.15 | (2.45) | 7.49 | |
| CAD | Colonial Coal International | (0.15) | 2 per month | 3.14 | 0.17 | 9.95 | (5.30) | 29.75 | |
| SHLE | Source Energy Services | 0.45 | 9 per month | 2.86 | 0.13 | 4.71 | (3.74) | 17.79 | |
| KEI | Kolibri Global Energy | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.24 | (3.85) | 10.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Calfrac Well
For every potential investor in Calfrac, whether a beginner or expert, Calfrac Well's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Calfrac Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Calfrac. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Calfrac Well's price trends.Calfrac Well Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Calfrac Well stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Calfrac Well could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Calfrac Well by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Calfrac Well Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Calfrac Well stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Calfrac Well shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Calfrac Well stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Calfrac Well Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Calfrac Well Risk Indicators
The analysis of Calfrac Well's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Calfrac Well's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting calfrac stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.09 | |||
| Variance | 9.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Calfrac Well
The number of cover stories for Calfrac Well depends on current market conditions and Calfrac Well's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Calfrac Well is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Calfrac Well's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Calfrac Well Short Properties
Calfrac Well's future price predictability will typically decrease when Calfrac Well's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Calfrac Well Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Calfrac Well's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Calfrac Well's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 86.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44 M |
Other Information on Investing in Calfrac Stock
Calfrac Well financial ratios help investors to determine whether Calfrac Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Calfrac with respect to the benefits of owning Calfrac Well security.