Capital One Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CFX Stock  EUR 182.00  2.00  1.09%   
Capital Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Capital One's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 31st of January 2026, the value of RSI of Capital One's share price is approaching 40 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Capital One, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 40

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Capital One's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Capital One and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Capital One's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Capital One Financial, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Capital One hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Capital One Financial from the perspective of Capital One response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Capital One Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 182.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 176.23.

Capital One after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 182.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capital One to cross-verify your projections.

Capital One Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Capital price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Capital using various technical indicators. When you analyze Capital charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Capital One simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Capital One Financial are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Capital One Financial prices get older.

Capital One Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Capital One Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 182.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.94, mean absolute percentage error of 21.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 176.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Capital Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Capital One's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Capital One Stock Forecast Pattern

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Capital One Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Capital One's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Capital One's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 179.67 and 184.33, respectively. We have considered Capital One's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
182.00
179.67
Downside
182.00
Expected Value
184.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Capital One stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Capital One stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.3591
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1048
MADMean absolute deviation2.9372
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0152
SAESum of the absolute errors176.23
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Capital One Financial forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Capital One observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Capital One

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Capital One Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
179.65182.00184.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
163.80188.75191.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
172.84199.17225.50
Details

Capital One After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Capital One at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Capital One or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Capital One, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Capital One Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Capital One's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Capital One's historical news coverage. Capital One's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 179.65 and 184.35, respectively. We have considered Capital One's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
182.00
179.65
Downside
182.00
After-hype Price
184.35
Upside
Capital One is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Capital One Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

Capital One Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Capital One is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Capital One backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Capital One, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.03 
2.33
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
182.00
182.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Capital One Hype Timeline

Capital One Financial is currently traded for 182.00on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Capital is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Capital One is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 182.00. About 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.73. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Capital One Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.62. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 16.89. The firm last dividend was issued on the 3rd of February 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capital One to cross-verify your projections.

Capital One Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Capital One's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Capital One's future price movements. Getting to know how Capital One's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Capital One may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Capital One

For every potential investor in Capital, whether a beginner or expert, Capital One's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Capital Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Capital. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Capital One's price trends.

Capital One Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Capital One stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Capital One could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Capital One by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Capital One Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Capital One stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Capital One shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Capital One stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Capital One Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Capital One Risk Indicators

The analysis of Capital One's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Capital One's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting capital stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Capital One

The number of cover stories for Capital One depends on current market conditions and Capital One's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Capital One is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Capital One's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Capital Stock

When determining whether Capital One Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Capital One's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Capital One's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Capital Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capital One to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
It's important to distinguish between Capital One's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Capital One should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Capital One's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.