Canopy Growth Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CGC Stock | USD 1.17 0.08 7.34% |
Canopy Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Canopy Growth stock prices and determine the direction of Canopy Growth Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Canopy Growth's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Canopy Growth's share price is approaching 48 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Canopy Growth, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.09) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.13) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.09 | Wall Street Target Price 1.8297 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.11) |
Using Canopy Growth hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Canopy Growth Corp from the perspective of Canopy Growth response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Canopy Growth using Canopy Growth's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Canopy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Canopy Growth's stock price.
Canopy Growth Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Canopy Growth's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Canopy. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Canopy Growth stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 1.3115 | Short Percent 0.0938 | Short Ratio 0.78 | Shares Short Prior Month 30.6 M | 50 Day MA 1.2402 |
Canopy Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canopy Growth Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.75.Canopy Growth Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Canopy Growth's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Canopy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Canopy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Canopy Growth Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Canopy Growth's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Canopy Growth.
Canopy Growth Implied Volatility | 1.46 |
Canopy Growth's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Canopy Growth Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Canopy Growth's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Canopy Growth stock will not fluctuate a lot when Canopy Growth's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canopy Growth Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.75.
Canopy Growth after-hype prediction price | USD 1.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canopy Growth to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Canopy contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Canopy Growth Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0913% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Canopy Growth trading at USD 1.17, that is roughly USD 0.001068 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Canopy Growth's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Canopy Growth Corp options at the current volatility level of 1.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Canopy Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Canopy Growth's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Canopy Growth's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Canopy Growth stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Canopy Growth's open interest, investors have to compare it to Canopy Growth's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Canopy Growth is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Canopy. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Canopy Growth Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Canopy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Canopy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Canopy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Canopy Growth Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canopy Growth Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Canopy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Canopy Growth's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Canopy Growth Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Canopy Growth | Canopy Growth Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Canopy Growth Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Canopy Growth's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Canopy Growth's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 9.73, respectively. We have considered Canopy Growth's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Canopy Growth stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Canopy Growth stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0159 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0635 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0472 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.7477 |
Predictive Modules for Canopy Growth
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canopy Growth Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Canopy Growth After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Canopy Growth at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Canopy Growth or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Canopy Growth, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Canopy Growth Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Canopy Growth's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Canopy Growth's historical news coverage. Canopy Growth's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 9.74, respectively. We have considered Canopy Growth's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Canopy Growth is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Canopy Growth Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Canopy Growth Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Canopy Growth is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Canopy Growth backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Canopy Growth, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 8.57 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 13 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.17 | 1.17 | 0.00 |
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Canopy Growth Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Canopy Growth Corp is traded for 1.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Canopy is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on Canopy Growth is about 5751.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.22. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.77. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Canopy Growth Corp recorded a loss per share of 1.95. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 20th of December 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canopy Growth to cross-verify your projections.Canopy Growth Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Canopy Growth's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Canopy Growth's future price movements. Getting to know how Canopy Growth's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Canopy Growth may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ACB | Aurora Cannabis | (0.04) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.56 | (5.19) | 26.49 | |
| TKNO | Alpha Teknova | (0.27) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 4.75 | (8.07) | 23.61 | |
| BIOA | BioAge Labs | (1.41) | 8 per month | 2.63 | 0.25 | 13.88 | (6.06) | 33.50 | |
| LFCR | Lifecore Biomedical | (0.23) | 9 per month | 2.38 | 0.06 | 6.17 | (4.51) | 15.24 | |
| IRWD | Ironwood Pharmaceuticals | (0.33) | 9 per month | 2.89 | 0.25 | 23.32 | (6.70) | 41.10 | |
| OMI | Owens Minor | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 6.88 | (13.10) | 27.99 | |
| LYEL | Lyell Immunopharma | 3.58 | 5 per month | 4.10 | 0.14 | 12.12 | (7.92) | 31.14 | |
| DH | Definitive Healthcare Corp | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.85 | (5.23) | 30.23 | |
| ACRS | Aclaris Therapeutics | 0.05 | 9 per month | 4.61 | 0.09 | 8.62 | (7.99) | 84.20 | |
| CABA | Cabaletta Bio | 0.15 | 7 per month | 4.82 | 0.04 | 8.44 | (7.27) | 62.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Canopy Growth
For every potential investor in Canopy, whether a beginner or expert, Canopy Growth's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Canopy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Canopy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Canopy Growth's price trends.Canopy Growth Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Canopy Growth stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Canopy Growth could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Canopy Growth by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Canopy Growth Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Canopy Growth stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Canopy Growth shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Canopy Growth stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Canopy Growth Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Canopy Growth Risk Indicators
The analysis of Canopy Growth's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Canopy Growth's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting canopy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.62 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.29 | |||
| Variance | 68.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 26.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 22.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Canopy Growth
The number of cover stories for Canopy Growth depends on current market conditions and Canopy Growth's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Canopy Growth is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Canopy Growth's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Canopy Growth Short Properties
Canopy Growth's future price predictability will typically decrease when Canopy Growth's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Canopy Growth Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Canopy Growth's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canopy Growth's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 107.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 131.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canopy Growth to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Will Pharmaceuticals sector continue expanding? Could Canopy diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Canopy Growth. Projected growth potential of Canopy fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Canopy Growth data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (1.95) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.059 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Canopy Growth Corp using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Canopy Growth's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Canopy Growth's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Canopy Growth's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Canopy Growth should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Canopy Growth's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.