Cognition Therapeutics Stock Forward View
| CGTX Stock | USD 1.09 0.15 12.10% |
Cognition Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the RSI of Cognition Therapeutics' share price is approaching 36 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Cognition Therapeutics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 36
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Cognition Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cognition Therapeutics from the perspective of Cognition Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cognition Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.80. Cognition Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 1.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Cognition Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cognition price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cognition using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cognition charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cognition Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cognition Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cognition Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cognition Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cognition Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cognition Therapeutics | Cognition Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cognition Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cognition Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cognition Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 6.09, respectively. We have considered Cognition Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cognition Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cognition Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1956 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0624 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0411 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.8045 |
Predictive Modules for Cognition Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cognition Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cognition Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cognition Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cognition Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cognition Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cognition Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cognition Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cognition Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cognition Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Cognition Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 6.36, respectively. We have considered Cognition Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cognition Therapeutics is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cognition Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cognition Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cognition Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cognition Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cognition Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.53 | 5.14 | 0.78 | 0.89 | 3 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.09 | 1.22 | 12.01 |
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Cognition Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Cognition Therapeutics is currently traded for 1.09. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.78, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.89. Cognition is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.22 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 12.01%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.53%. The volatility of related hype on Cognition Therapeutics is about 306.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.20. Cognition Therapeutics currently holds 814 K in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.02, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Cognition Therapeutics has a current ratio of 4.12, suggesting that it is liquid enough and is able to pay its financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Cognition Therapeutics' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cognition Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Cognition Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cognition Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cognition Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Cognition Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cognition Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TVGN | Tevogen Bio Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 10.00 | (8.89) | 26.81 | |
| VTGN | VistaGen Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 7.59 | (12.80) | 96.59 | |
| SRZN | Surrozen | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.29 | 0.15 | 13.34 | (6.75) | 34.29 | |
| SEER | Seer Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 3.28 | (2.76) | 6.43 | |
| GLSI | Greenwich Lifesciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.30 | 0.29 | 19.77 | (10.29) | 36.51 | |
| ATOS | Atossa Genetics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 6.78 | (6.67) | 20.34 | |
| SPRO | Spero Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.59 | (5.04) | 13.07 | |
| IRD | Opus Genetics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.05 | 0.04 | 6.70 | (7.41) | 17.79 | |
| AGEN | Agenus Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.63 | (6.79) | 30.06 | |
| MCRB | Seres Therapeutics | (16.76) | 3 per month | 6.84 | 0.02 | 9.13 | (7.64) | 54.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cognition Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Cognition, whether a beginner or expert, Cognition Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cognition Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cognition. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cognition Therapeutics' price trends.Cognition Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cognition Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cognition Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cognition Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cognition Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cognition Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cognition Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cognition Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cognition Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cognition Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cognition Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cognition Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cognition stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.14 | |||
| Variance | 26.47 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cognition Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Cognition Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Cognition Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cognition Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cognition Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cognition Therapeutics Short Properties
Cognition Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Cognition Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cognition Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cognition Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cognition Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 25 M |
Additional Tools for Cognition Stock Analysis
When running Cognition Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Cognition Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cognition Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Cognition Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cognition Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cognition Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cognition Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.